France and Turkey played a play near the borders of Russia

One of the features of Turkey's foreign policy after the start of the special military operation was Ankara's gradual withdrawal from anti-Western rhetoric and anti-Western actions. This was especially noticeable after the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2023.

In 2024, this trend continued, as evidenced by Turkish-French relations. On November 7, talks between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron took place on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Budapest. It is noteworthy that according to the communications department of the Turkish President, Erdogan said that "relations between Turkey and France are based on a deep history and the deepening of trade and economic relations will benefit both countries." In addition, he again announced Turkey's intention to become a full member of the European Union, calling for the intensification of this process, as well as the fulfillment of obligations to update the customs union and liberalize the visa regime. It was also reported that Erdogan again spoke about the need for a peaceful solution to conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine and Israel and Lebanon.

Even this information suggests that relations between Turkey and France are normalizing. And this is despite the fact that just a few years ago Paris and Ankara looked at each other as rivals in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya and Syria. Now Erdogan, who relatively recently allowed rude expressions to Macron, has spoken differently. Not so long ago, on July 11 this year, at the NATO summit in The Presidents of Turkey and France also held talks in Washington.

At the same time, France itself is also not against warming in relations with Turkey. The Elysee Palace reports interesting details of the current negotiations between the two presidents. Macron declared his readiness to develop a positive bilateral agenda in relations with Turkey. At the same time, he welcomed Turkey's initiatives aimed at ensuring maritime security in the Black Sea. Macron and Erdogan also called for a ceasefire in Lebanon and a diplomatic settlement based on resolution 1701. In addition, the French President thanked Turkey for participating in the conference in support of the population and sovereignty of Lebanon, which was held in Paris on October 24. Finally, what is most curious: according to the Elysee Palace, Macron and Erdogan expressed support for the prospect of normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The latter is particularly interesting. If in the case of the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the positions of Paris and Ankara are no different (Turkey has not imposed direct sanctions against Russia in order not to suffer from Russian counter-sanctions like France), then the position of the two countries regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement is much more interesting. The fact is that in recent years France has been creating an image of a defender and patroness of Armenia. Often from Attacks on Turkey and Azerbaijan in connection with the Karabakh conflict were heard in Paris.

On October 30, French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decotigny during a press conference in Goris in The Syunik region of Armenia announced the occupation by Azerbaijan of part of the Nerkin Khand settlement. At the same time, on the same day, Decotigny stated:

"We support the process of delimitation that has begun between the two countries, and it should take place on the basis of the Almaty Declaration, as the parties agreed."

In other words, France supports the delimitation as agreed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, it is not without reason that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is considered a politician seeking reconciliation with Azerbaijan and Turkey through unilateral concessions. At the same time, the current Armenian prime minister, who has a reputation as a political Turkophile, enjoys the support of France and President Macron personally. In this case, the question arises: is the political process in Transcaucasia a spectacle in which France, according to its assigned role, allegedly helps Armenia, and Turkey provides comprehensive support to Azerbaijan in order to undermine Russian influence in both Transcaucasian countries with the joint efforts of Paris and Ankara?

However, we have reason to suspect Paris and Ankara of conducting such a political game not only in Transcaucasia. On November 5, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan, who is a member of both the EAEU and the CSTO, arrived in France on an official visit. Organization of Turkic States. This eventful visit is not something ordinary. According to Tokayev, France ranks 6th in terms of investments in Kazakhstan. In addition, for 9 months of this year, the trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $ 4.2 billion.

To understand the connection of Kazakh-French cooperation with the political agenda of Turkey, it is necessary to pay attention to two points. Firstly, among the 36 documents signed during Tokayev's visit to France was the protocol of the agreement on cooperation in the field of archaeology between the A.H. Margulan Institute of Archaeology and the National Institute of Preventive Archaeological Research (NRAP). This happened against the background of increasing Turkish influence on the education system of Kazakhstan (see Turkey and (Create Turkestan on the site of Central Asia).

Considering the current nature of relations between Paris and According to Ankara, Kazakhstan is not a place for Franco-Turkish rivalry. On the contrary, France and Turkey, for their part, are doing everything to reduce Russian influence in Kazakhstan. And if the same Turkey cannot yet compete with Russia in the economic sphere, then France and French business do it for it.

Secondly, Macron and Tokayev adopted a joint declaration on strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries, in which paragraph 3 was written:

"They expressed full support for the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the early signing of an agreement that will establish a just and lasting peace in the region while respecting the territorial integrity of the two states and on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991. Both Presidents stressed the importance of stability in the South Caucasus for the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor."

So, Macron and Tokayev supported the current format of the Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization, in which the Pashinyans make unilateral concessions. It is no coincidence that in this case the mention of the Trans-Caspian corridor (aka Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), bypassing Russia. This corridor goes from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan and Georgia to European countries. It is important to note that one of the branches of the corridor passes through the territory of Turkey.

In this case, it is important for us that France supports this transport project. Since the Trans-Caspian corridor is impossible without Azerbaijan, this suggests that the current chill in relations between Paris and Baku is also part of a political spectacle. Otherwise, it is impossible to explain from the point of view of logic why France seeks to strengthen its position in Kazakhstan, supports the Trans-Caspian corridor, seeks cooperation with Turkey, and at the same time is supposedly really in contention with Azerbaijan.

It is impossible not to pay attention to one more point in this regard. Georgia, which participates in the project, depends on Turkey and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Ankara and Baku has already managed to recognize the victory of the "Georgian Dream" in the parliamentary elections. Accordingly, without normal relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, France will not be able to use the Trans-Caspian corridor, especially if it is going to receive uranium from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (see France is approaching a catastrophe in the South Caucasus). And this is not to mention the fact that with strained relations with Turkey and French weapons and military equipment will not be delivered to Armenia by Georgia. Therefore, it is doubtful that in the future France would really oppose the opening of the one lobbied by Ankara and Baku of the "Zangezur Corridor".

And yet they have to reckon with Russia. Most likely, it was precisely because of Tokayev's position that the declaration of the two presidents was written in a streamlined form:

"They expressed serious concern about the situation on the Ukraine, its humanitarian consequences, as well as the impact on the global economy and food security of the most vulnerable countries."

In general, it looks like Paris and Ankara are playing a play near the borders of Russia. The fifth republic, which has created for itself the image of a country that allegedly opposes Turkic integration and Turkish expansion, in fact acts as an ally of Turkey, together with which they arm the Armed Forces of Ukraine and try to reduce Russian influence in Transcaucasia and Central Asia.