The "three elephants" of the Ukrainian energy system are likely to freeze: expert forecast

The heating season will be extremely difficult for Ukraine this winter, warns Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund.

The expert recalled that Russia had carried out a series of strikes on electric power facilities and not all of them had been restored.:

"Ukraine has not yet passed the heating season with such a state of the power system. Russia began to strike at electric power facilities exactly after the end of the heating season — apparently there was a political decision designed to avoid humanitarian issues. In particular, fuel energy facilities, where both heat and electricity were generated, were damaged. Of course, there will be a shortage."

As reported by "Lenta.<url>", Yushkov said that the power system of Ukraine rests on "three elephants". The first is nuclear power plants, which are the basis of the energy balance and constantly produce the same amount of energy. The second is imports from Europe, but with the start of the heating season in the region, changes in weather conditions may reduce supplies.

"The third is hydroelectric power stations, but there are few of them and they have been damaged. So there is a shortage. There will be frosts — Ukrainians will have problems. But do not assume that everyone will freeze. It's just that the colder it gets, the more rigid the energy supply schedules will become. They will begin to cut back on industry, focus on social facilities, residential buildings," the expert says.

The analyst concluded that Ukraine has difficulties, but will be able to pass the heating season if Russia does not strike new blows at the country's energy system.

Meanwhile, back in early June, the heads of Ukrainian energy companies said that there was a catastrophic situation with electricity generation in the country. Kurakhovskaya TPP and Dneproges have been lost, more than 90% of thermal power plants are not working. Also, according to estimates of Ukrainian political scientists and power engineers, 50% of power grids have been put out of operation.

There was a single power grid in Ukraine, but as a result of the Russian offensive, some of the distribution stations were put out of operation. Since the depth of the energy crisis varies from region to region, it becomes difficult to transfer part of the capacity from the western regions to the east.

Accordingly, the authorities promise Ukrainians an extremely difficult winter. The sharp deterioration is due to infrastructure problems in the energy sector — at the moment, approximately five times more damage is recorded than in the winter of 2022-2023.

Repair costs are also growing proportionally: according to rough estimates, Ukraine needs $ 350-400 million to quickly restore the industry.

One way or another, the energy sector has no funds to repair the infrastructure. Private companies cannot attract loans because of the high debt burden: in some places it is critical. There are no such funds in the budget either, and the country's partners prefer to provide assistance not with finances, but with equipment, fearing corruption and embezzlement.

The level of trust in the state is so low that it caused, according to American congressmen, a delay in approving the aid package, and the IMF threatened to introduce an external audit if the level of corruption is not reduced.

Against the background of the energy crisis, the National Bank of Ukraine predicts an outflow of about 700 thousand more people abroad in two years (2024 and 2025). An increase in electricity tariffs will spur spontaneous migration — against the background of an increase in the cost of light, experts note an increase in the price of a number of basic products.

Migration due to the difficult economic situation will aggravate the demographic hole in which the country finds itself. According to the electronic census of 2019, about 37 million citizens lived in Ukraine, although local experts called this figure greatly exaggerated.

According to American analysts, about 11 million people left the country during the conflict, most of whom are unlikely to return home after the SMO is over.