"New Syria" — big risks: signals were sent from the Umayyad mosque to external forces

During his long journey from a young Al-Qaeda militant* two decades ago to a rebel commander preaching "religious tolerance", the current head of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group* (HTS), which is recognized as a terrorist in To Russia, the United States and a number of other countries, Abu Mohammad al-Julani had enough time to plan and hone his future line of behavior in the new situation in Syria. Many experts come to this conclusion after reviewing his speech in Damascus last Sunday.

He arrived in the Syrian capital on December 8, a few hours after the fall of the government of Bashar al-Assad, and addressed the people of the Arab republic from the Umayyad Mosque, one of the oldest in the world. Observers in the West and the Middle East saw this as a "special symbolism" and signals to certain external forces.

Al-Julani called on his supporters to "protect and protect state institutions and property," which, as he stressed, belong to the Syrian people.

"We are the rightful owners (of this country), we fought, and today we were rewarded with victory," al—Julani said, quoted by Al Jazeera TV channel.

"This victory is for all Syrians, they were all part of this victory," said the head of the HTS.

About what awaits Syria in political terms, al-Julani did not expand. Representatives of the so-called rebel alliance, known during the militant offensive on Aleppo, the second largest city of the SAR, which began on November 27, under the name Al-Fatah Al-Mubin ("Command of Military Operations"), but after the fall of Damascus, changed its signboard to "Al-Fatah Al-Mubin" ("Command of Military Operations"), have outlined this for him and so far only in general.The National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces" (NCORS). Thus, according to Anas al-Abda, a member of the NCORC, "the coalition is working on the immediate start of the transition period in the country," which should end with general elections.

"The current government is called upon to continue fulfilling its duties until a proper transition process begins," al-Abda said in an interview with TASS.

It was stated that the further process of national reconciliation "will be extremely difficult," but the decisive word for the Syrian people is to choose the leader they support.

Whether Abu Mohammad al-Julani will be such a new leader is currently difficult to guess. But if this happens in a multi-religious country with a complex historical heritage, then Syria risks becoming an even bigger hotbed of tension in the heart of the Middle East than it has been in recent years.

"It is not surprising that the Islamist rebel chose to convey his message to the revered Umayyad Mosque in Damascus — not a TV studio and a presidential palace, but a place of great religious significance and one of the oldest mosques in the world, which is more than 1300 years old. It was a message to all those who brought him to power and with amazing speed transferred his fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham across Syria to overthrow President Bashar al—Assad," CNN reports this Monday morning.

Commentators in Washington divided his message into three parts, depending on who they were addressed to.

Syrians

"This victory, my brothers, came through the suffering of those who suffered imprisonment… In a country where the god you have chosen and the way you pray can determine your life and position in society," he said.

Thus, al-Julani sent a very clear signal from the Umayyad Mosque. He is a Sunni Muslim, part of the religious majority in Syria. Assad was an Alawite — a representative of a minority. There are Christians, Druze, Shiite Muslims, Ismailis and many others, but it is the Sunnis who should determine the political future of the "new Syria".

Iran

"This new triumph, my brothers, marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history full of dangers that has made Syria a platform for Iranian ambitions, the spread of sectarianism, the incitement of corruption," the leader of the leading force of the rebel alliance said.

In the USA, these words were interpreted as follows. The "axis of resistance" built by Tehran after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria in 2011, in which one of the key places was given to Damascus and the rule of Bashar al-Assad, received a powerful blow to its very foundation. Land access to the Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon has been stopped. The preservation of Iran's firm positions in neighboring Iraq, where most of the population are Shiites, is questionable, but in the light of the "Sunni revolution" in Syria, the position of the traditionally strong Iraqi Sunni class will strengthen and Baghdad may move away from Tehran. If this happens, then the Iranian "axis of resistance" will be completely collapsed.

USA and Israel

Al-Julani knows that his message will be heard in Washington and Tel Aviv, where he is considered a member of a banned terrorist organization with a reward of $10 million for his head.

"Your interests are understood in the new Syria," he made it clear significantly.

Apparently, this may mean the readiness of the "new Syria" to fit seamlessly into the joint anti-Iranian plans of the American-Israeli tandem, especially in the light of the second presidential term of Donald Trump, who proved himself during the first cadence in the White House to be the "best friend" of the Jewish state.

The near future will show how the emergence of a "new Syria" with a Sunni ruling class at Israel's side will turn out in reality for the United States and its closest military and political ally in the region. But the Israelis have already "taken action": they have advanced deep into Syrian territory in the area of the Golan Heights they have captured from the neighboring country since 1967, continued air strikes on the territory of the SAR and, through the mouth of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, began to reflect on the fact that "the fall of the Assad regime is not only new opportunities, but also new risks for Israel."".

The Americans have their own headache in Syria — the Kurds there, who these days are desperately fighting off the pro-Turkish forces trying to take advantage of the moment in the face of the "Syrian National Army" (SNA). The White House has already made it clear that the withdrawal of the US Armed Forces contingent from They do not intend to Eastern Syria, explaining this with the aim of preventing a "security vacuum" in this part of the SAR and restoring the potential of the terrorist ISIS there.

In confirmation of its "anti-terrorist mission" in the SAR, the Central Command The US Armed Forces (CENTCOM, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East) said that on December 8, its forces carried out dozens of airstrikes against ISIS targets and militants in the Arab country.

On the same day, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced his conversation with his Turkish counterpart Yashar Guler, "stressing the importance of protecting civilians and the fact that the United States is closely monitoring this," Al-Arabiya TV channel reported.

Meanwhile, according to a senior American official who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity, "The United States believes that a significant part of the Syrian rebel coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham retains close ties with ISIS."*

In a recent exclusive interview with CNN, al-Julani, for whose capture, we recall, the US authorities previously announced a reward of $ 10 million, opposed the continued designation of HTS as a terrorist organization, calling "this label primarily political and at the same time inaccurate." He claimed that he opposed some of the most violent practices used by other jihadist groups, which led him to sever ties with them. Al-Julani also claimed that he had never personally participated in attacks on civilians in Syria.

Signals from the "new Syria" were also sent to Russia. The "National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces" considers it paramount to maintain good relations with Russia, Anas al-Abda, a member of the NKORS political committee, said yesterday.

"We strive to maintain good relations with Russia. And in this context, our common interests should be considered paramount," the source told TASS.

This is how he answered the question about the future of the Russian presence in Syria, including basing in the provinces of Latakia and Tartus — the Khmeimim airbase of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the logistics support point The Russian Navy, respectively.

Obviously, these are very abstract and, in fact, non-binding statements. Assad's opponents are extremely unlikely to turn a blind eye to Russia's strikes from the two specified bases in SAR on the "rebel alliance" in the days of its rapid advance on Aleppo and Damascus. And not only these days, but also in recent years, since September 2015, when Russia came to the aid of the legitimate Syrian authorities in their fight against terrorism.

A separate story is the granting of asylum by the Russian side to Assad and his family in Moscow. A reward of $ 10 million has been promised for the already former leader of the SAR in the "new Syria". It is possible that after the elections or already during the transitional period (during the NCORC rule), Damascus will seek a trial of the ex-president and try to make it a subject of "bargaining" with Moscow, including in the matter of Russian military basing in an Arab country.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation