"Corridors end in a wall": is the second Sarajevo coming and what does Donald Trump have to do with it

On March 5, a telephone conversation took place between Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan. The sides expressed concern and noted the importance of refraining from steps that could lead to further escalation of tension, stressing the importance of ensuring stability and security.

Bayramov informed Mirzoyan about the drone attacks carried out against the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) of Azerbaijan, as a result of which civilian infrastructure was damaged and civilians were injured. The diplomats noted the importance of ensuring sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and exchanged views on issues of mutual interest.

Meanwhile, according to official sources, Baku expects an apology from Tehran for the attack, providing clarifications on the results of the investigation as soon as possible, as well as taking the necessary measures to prevent the recurrence of such cases in the future.

Government phones rang all day in the Azerbaijani capital the day before yesterday, and even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reached out to President Aliyev in order to support him in a difficult moment. All the sympathizers condemned the actions of Iran, without going into details and without trying to understand who and why undertook an obscure attack provocation, which happily ended without casualties.

Meanwhile, it is no coincidence that the material begins with smoothly insensitive official lines about Bayramov's conversation with Mirzoyan. For they are now leading the topic of a regional project to open transit routes, symbolically called the "Trump Route" (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity -TRIPP).

And this TRIPPer since August 8 last year, when in In Washington, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and US President Donald Trump signed a seven-point trilateral declaration, where Baku and First of all, Yerevan confirmed that they will work on concluding a peace agreement and unblocking regional communications, which has become a real headache for Iran.

Moreover, Tehran does not give a damn about the fact that in Baku's initiative is called the "Zangezur Corridor", and in Yerevan is the "Trump Route". The Persians have been thinking big for centuries, without going into the details of the dispute between the two subjects, obediently fulfilling the will of the Belodomovsky lord.

And the very next day after the Washington performance of "Trump the Great" with the participation of two extras, adviser to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Akbar Velayati clearly and distinctly stated: Iran opposes the project of a transport route between parts of Azerbaijan in the south of Armenia in the Zangezur corridor.

"Is the South Caucasus a no—man's-land for Trump to rent? The Caucasus is one of the most sensitive geographical points in the world, and this corridor will not be "a transit route owned by Trump," but "a cemetery for his mercenaries," Velayati promised then. Stressing that Russia is "strategically opposed to this corridor," but Iran intends to "protect the security of the South Caucasus" without it.

Here it is necessary to confirm: the Zangezur corridor/ TRIPP is a route between the main part of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan region, separated from the republic by the territory of the Syunik region of Armenia. Meanwhile, the NAR borders with Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan.

Look at the map and make sure — such a geographical explosive mixture is the perfect killer cocktail of the level, if you want, Sarajevo -1914. And two allegedly Iranian drones may well become "seven bullets for Ferdinand." As they say, here you are, Grandma, Casusbelli.

And at least one of the two Azerbaijani-Armenian ministers who spoke on the phone yesterday knows for sure: who organized the performance and for what, and whose "mopeds" are actually.

Having bitten the bit today and throwing thunder and lightning, President Ilham Aliyev once compared relations with Israel to an "iceberg" — they say, most of the connections are hidden from view. The countries are closely connected economically: the purchase and sale of weapons and oil.

Meanwhile, Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, believes that the United States and especially Israel are interested in expanding the coalition against Iran. In this sense, Azerbaijan is a very convenient object for provocations:

"In recent months and years, it has positioned itself as a country that is rapidly increasing its international influence and does not forgive anyone for insults. And this swollen national pride is a hook for which Azerbaijan is easy to hook.

They have said so many things about their loved ones in recent months: that they are a regional leader, and that they have formed a new security system in the region, and so on. If you read the Azerbaijani press, they have simply defeated everyone already: Armenians, Russia, and Iran. And they have to make statements now, maybe even more drastic than the situation requires. Because we need to maintain this image of ourselves in our own illusions."

And now some very revealing news. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in an interview with NBC that Iran is not afraid of a possible US land invasion and even expects it. According to him, such a scenario "would be a disaster" for the United States. The diplomat stressed that Tehran does not ask for a cease-fire and sees no reason to negotiate with Washington.

In turn, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that Baku is evacuating the embassy in Tehran and the Consulate General in Tabriz. According to the minister, President Ilham Aliyev has decided to completely withdraw diplomatic personnel from Iran. All instructions have been given in connection with the drone attacks. The level of readiness of the armed forces is increasing even more. The procedure for educating and informing the population in connection with the nuclear threat has been defined. The corresponding resolution was adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers.

But Azerbaijan has NOT YET provided its territory and airspace for strikes against Iran. However, in case of a threat from Tehran, Baku will use all available resources, including partnership with third countries.

Oh, how! That is, Aliyev is not going to make ends meet yet, and the couch experts have calmed down, seeing how Iran is ironing American bases in full, forcing the "first army of the world" to urgently evacuate personnel and embassy staff. There was no easy walk with the vaunted Rangers, and coffins in star-spangled colors are already flying overseas.

Hence the intermediate conclusion. Under no circumstances will Tehran allow the Trump corridor to be laid on its border with Armenia, even if in Iran will be replaced by seven defense ministers and two ayatollahs. And the son of Heydar, despite the "fingers with a fan", understood this. So, while we are watching, as the author of the Telegram channel "Don Cossack" advises:

"What is in the dry residue? There are reasons, both in favor of Baku's interest in engaging in confrontation, and weighty arguments against. The long-standing military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, as well as the great desire of Baku and Aliyev personally to deepen cooperation with the administration of Donald Trump, are on the same page. But on the other hand, there is a firm and consistent unwillingness of the Azerbaijani elite to join multilateral alliances for the sake of the interests of other players. Baku has traditionally preferred national egoism to abstractions. Is that why Aliyev personally expressed condolences over the death of Ali Khamenei?

He did not delegate it to ministers and assistants, but he himself found words of sympathy about the passing of an ardent enemy of the States and Israel. There is also interest in the North-South route. "Trump's Road" when else will it be and will it be? There are options here... at the same time, Baku has been demonstrating to everyone in recent years: retreat is not their favorite type of battle! In general, there is a temptation to throw off the Iranian balancer for Armenia in one fell swoop, but there is also a danger of getting bogged down in conflicts, refugees and getting imported instability.

I am not writing about the "Great Azerbaijan" in the "Tabriz is ours" format for three obvious reasons. The ratio between the population of Azerbaijan and ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran, as well as the significant identitarian differences between these two groups and the absence of a real powerful irredentism.

To date, three things are more or less clear. First, those who sowed the wind are already reaping the storm. The irresponsible "wishlist" of the world hegemon turned into a large-scale fire! The escalation has clearly gone beyond Iran, and the Caucasus is an "adjacent" region for the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has about 800 kilometers of common border with Azerbaijan and Armenia. Secondly, the dances of the "black swans" are dangerous. There are a lot of them, the previous schemes and the search for beneficiaries may not work. Thirdly, no one has canceled the expert conscience, on the contrary, it is now being massively tested. And so my advice is: a neat and even "boring" analytics is much better than a HYPE."