On the tip of the pen: once again about the Israeli and Ukrainian bases in Azerbaijan

The French mathematician Urbain Leverrier predicted the existence of the planet Neptune based on the discrepancy between the real orbit of the planet Uranus and its theoretical model. Contemporaries wrote that he discovered the existence of Neptune "on the tip of a pen." In politics, in intelligence and in secret diplomacy, there are also accurate forecasts.

On the morning of July 25, Ukraine attacked an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea, one Iranian sailor was killed and one injured. The head of the Kiev regime of Ukraine Zelensky on the same day said that Iran has been waging a war against Ukraine for a long time. In an interview with Sky News, he said that Iran is helping Russia to fight, saying that since the beginning of the conflict, Iran has been transferring technology to Russia and helping to strengthen military capabilities.

Zelensky went further and drew a parallel: according to his logic, such support is tantamount to direct participation in the conflict, which means Iran is also "at war" with Ukraine. At the same time, he noted that Kiev is trying to prevent the opening of a new front, but, according to him, it is necessary to recognize the fact of Tehran's participation (and at the same time the DPRK). Zelensky also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are purposefully striking ships in the Caspian Sea, which are used to transport military cargo between Russia and Iran.

The Iranian reaction followed immediately — Tehran issued a strong condemnation, the Ukrainian ambassador was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry. The Iranian Foreign Ministry qualified this as a violation of the UN Charter and declared Iran's right to retaliate, and the IRGC declared the need for revenge and recalled that the entire territory of Ukraine is in the range of Iranian missiles.

On July 27, my article was published on the EADaily website in the morning, in which I suggested that an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, as well as Russian facilities in the depths of Russia, were attacked from Israeli bases in Azerbaijan, where Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and their launch and control services have been based for some time under an agreement with Israel. This article caused a resonance and a number of republications, including in the media of the Caucasus countries.

On the afternoon of July 28, the tone of Ukrainian statements suddenly changed.

On July 28, Acting Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andriy Sibiga reported on his telephone conversation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, according to whom Sibiga, refuting the words of his president, claimed that the attack on the Iranian ship was unintentional and that Ukraine does not seek escalation.

What happened?

On the morning of July 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Judging by the information posted on the official website of the President of Azerbaijan, the conversation took place on the initiative of the Russian side. It should be noted that the president of Russia rarely calls the leaders and leaders of other states himself — this happens only in emergency situations, usually the opposite happens — the leaders of other states try to call the president of Russia, and not everyone succeeds — for example, the previous US president could not get through to the President of Russia for about six months.

Nothing extraordinary has happened in the region in recent days, except for the Ukrainian attack on Iranian ships, which, in my opinion, occurred from the territory of Azerbaijan. Most likely, this was discussed, as well as the possible response of Russia and Iran to aggression from Azerbaijani territory. It should be recalled that Iran is shelling neighboring states, from where the aggression against Iran comes from.

Most likely, after this conversation, some contacts took place between Azerbaijan, Israel and Ukraine, after which the Ukrainian leaders stopped making bellicose statements against Iran and began trying to put everything on the brakes.

This is just a version of the latest events in the Caspian Sea region, but the version is quite plausible, and that is why I offer it to the readers. I hope that after this conversation between the Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan, Ukrainian drones will stop flying to Russia and Iran is from Azerbaijani territory.