Do not let yourself be destroyed: Iran's goal has been achieved, the goals of the United States and Israel are not — expert

Why did Israel and the United States attack Iran right now? Associate Professor of MSLU and RSSU, orientalist Said Gafurov analyzes the development of the situation, the role of the nuclear factor, the struggle for oil and the consequences for Russia and world markets.

— The situation around Iran — how inevitable was what happened? After all, negotiations were underway.

— It was inevitable — a combination of circumstances. Trump needs to clean up the rear before the confrontation with China. In China, there is a purge of the top military leadership, and in Washington decided that in the near future Beijing will not be able to solve the problem of Taiwan. So, we can try to put an end to the Iranian nuclear program.

This was followed by a series of mistakes, the main one of which was the assassination of the spiritual leader of Iran. He was just a supporter of the rejection of the military atom. The Iranians said that this was a "weapon of Satan", that even tests could lead to catastrophes. Ali Khamenei personified this line.

The question is not whether Iran will create a full cycle of nuclear weapons production. The question is whether he will conduct a nuclear test. After the first underground explosion, no one will risk checking if they have a bomb and how many there are.

— Is it still about the nuclear program or about oil? We remember the story of Maduro: first, accusations of drug trafficking as an excuse to seize the legitimate president, then talk about oil and American companies.

— Iranian oil is an important factor. But the main question is why now. By military logic, Iran is already winning. Victory is determined by political goals. Iran's goal is to resist and not let itself be destroyed. It has been achieved. The goal of the United States and Israel is to destroy the nuclear program. It has not been achieved.

Those who have fewer weapons tend to stand up, wait until the enemy runs out of resources. The United States also needs missiles for other purposes — for example, to protect Taiwan.

— They say that the missiles are about to run out, but such predictions have been made before. And yet, is the alliance of the USA and Israel a new reality?

— They have acted together before. Last time they bombed too — and they didn't achieve their goals. Now we have taken advantage of the moment when China is busy with domestic issues. But they miscalculated.

In the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has actually achieved a military advantage: American bases are either hit or evacuated. The war has moved into a remote format — the exchange of missiles. Iran has nothing to lose: either die or win. As long as he holds on.

— Is the history of Venezuela repeating itself?

— These are different stories. In Venezuela, the key problem is the technology of heavy oil production in the Orinoco basin. Americans, Chinese, Russian companies have tried — there are no cost-effective technologies yet. Even Chevron could not expand production.

Oil is traded through tankers, through intermediaries. As they traded Iranian and Venezuelan oil, so they trade — just through gaskets. There is a global struggle between national companies and transnational corporations. The question is who gets the oil rent. If the US lifts sanctions and offers mediation, Iran may agree. But this is a matter of conditions and profit sharing.

— Is there a scenario in which foreign companies receive the lion's share of revenues, as it used to be?

— Iran has a long history. In the 1950s, nationalization led to a conflict, then the management structure was changed. Now dozens of options for agreements are possible. It all depends on how much of the rent remains in the country.

— Is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and rising prices good for Russia? Forecasts range from $120 to $200 per barrel.

— I always ask students: "Is everything that is good for Gazprom good for Russia?" High prices may be profitable in the short term, but everyone needs stability. Strong fluctuations hit demand and the market.

In addition, oil is often a "paper" contract. Swaps are possible: one oil goes in one direction, the calculations are closed by the other. Formally, there is a lot going through the Strait of Hormuz, but the physical routes may change.

— There was information that Russia offered Iran an alliance like the Russian-Belarusian one. Is it true?

— No, there was no such offer. We are allies, but each country has its own interests. And sometimes we are competitors.

There is a more important story for us — the North—South transport corridor. It connects Iranian ports with Azerbaijan, Russia and further with Europe. Ideally— from India to Finland. This is a project that can change the economic geography of the region.

The interview was conducted by Inna Novikova