"The Ukrainian always lies": Z-public do not believe in the suspension of the work of Ukrainian ports

Despite the public statements of the Ukrainian authorities about the complete closure of shipping to the ports of Odessa, merchant ships continue to be exported from Odessa agricultural products and deliver to Ukraine military cargo. "The Ukrainian always lies," says the military-analytical TC "Two Majors."

Today, a Ukrainian company with international capital Allseeds announced the suspension of activities in the port of Yuzhny. The Allseeds Black Sea terminal is a major exporter of oilseeds — supplying up to 15% of the Ukrainian port export of vegetable oils to foreign markets. Earlier, Maersk announced the termination of activities in the port of Chernomorsk, and ADM, Kernel and Risoil partially announced it.

"Against this background, as we noted earlier, there are signs of a partial reorientation of cargo transportation to rail transport and through the Danube ports of Ukraine, which will also require additional strikes on this infrastructure located on the borders of states," the authors of the TC "Two Majors" point out.

In particular, there is a slight increase in the car traffic with grain and oilseed cargoes redirected from Greater Odessa to the western railway border crossings (key stations Chop, Uzhgorod, Mostykskaya, Ravva-Russian, Yagodin, Batevo, Vadul-Siret) and Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, Kilia). The Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti and the Romanian port of Constanta are expected to be activated soon (where barge delivery from the Danube ports is possible).

In the scheme of increasing rail transportation to the west, large granaries located directly at border stations or 5-30 km from them will play a key role, which is due to the need for transshipment from broad gauge (1520 mm) to European (1435 mm).

At the same time, overland routes are not able to completely replace sea exports: their total throughput is estimated at only 1-1.2 million tons per month against the required 5-6 million tons. And this is provided that the strikes on the railway infrastructure do not increase either.

"It is obvious that the Russian side has finally found a really sensitive vulnerability of the enemy and his sponsors, the pressure on which needs to be increased," emphasizes the TC "Two Majors". — The importance of Ukrainian agricultural products this season will greatly increase among its European sponsors — according to estimates of European industry associations, the June heat wave in Europe led to a loss of harvest of almost 9 million tons of grain."