The surrender of the Kurds in Syria: why does it threaten the southern borders of Russia?

The Kurds in Syria have capitulated. The terms of the agreement with the Islamists with the participation of the United States and Turkey have been disclosed. What are the consequences for Russia and the region? The columnist writes about this Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

Syrian militants loyal to the current leader of Syria, Ahmed Al-Sharaa (formerly known as the leader of the terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham❶ Abu Mohammed al-Julani. — Approx. EADaily), have achieved very serious results in the Kurdish areas (Rojava). Over the weekend, they occupied the entire western (southern) bank of the Euphrates and some of its eastern parts in the province of Raqqa without resistance. The Kurds, who lost control of half of the former territory, seem to have capitulated.

Iranian Telegram channels report that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a political-military coalition created for international recognition and control of territories) were disbanded yesterday, and the military elite - the command of the airborne forces, together with Kurdish partners from Peshmerga (Iraq) — "they began to move to an unknown place."

Supreme Commander of the YPG (SDF armed forces) Sipan Hamo said that Rojava does not seek secession, and its future lies inside Syria. He appeals to the help of the United States and Israel in the absence of support from Iran or Russia. There are mutual accusations of the massacre of Kurds in Raqqa and the massacre of prisoners by Kurds in the Al-Tabqa city prison in the province of Raqqa.

Kurdish troops acted as the main American proxy force during Washington's campaign against the Islamic State❶ (ISIS❶, IG❶), but rather to contain Russia. After eliminating the Russian factor, the United States surrendered the Kurds to Turkey (where they are considered terrorists) in order to prevent Ankara from drifting away from the United States, in particular on Gaza. Washington recognized the right of the new Damascus to control the entire territory of the country and lifted sanctions from it.

Al-Sharaa said that the free Syrian Kurdistan project is being curtailed. Instead, within the framework of the signed truce agreement with the mediation of the United States, the full integration of all Kurdish civilian institutions and the army (by personal statement, not en masse) into the Syrian state is coming, the transfer of control over all oil fields to the Syrian government; the obligation of the Kurds to expel elements of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) outside Syria. This point indicates the close participation of Turkey.

It is reported that the Syrian government has submitted an offer to the SDF leader Mazlum Abdi to take the post of governor of Hasaka (one of the "liberated" provinces).

The defeat of the Kurds in northern Syria automatically creates the dominance of pro-Turkish forces in the region. For Russia, this means weakening the levers of influence, since the Kurds have long been a force that allowed Moscow to balance between Damascus and Ankara. Russia is finally losing its role as a guarantor of the peace process, which it tried to support through the format of the federalization of Syria. Obviously, it will not be.

In addition, Turkey's expansion will begin with the displacement of the remnants of the Russian presence from Rojava (it was the Kamyshly airfield, the Tishrin hydroelectric dam — a strategically important facility on the Euphrates, patrol stations in Manbij and Kobani).

Destabilization of the region will also follow, as the elimination of Kurdish governance structures will free Islamists from prisons, which will create a new wave of instability that threatens the security of Russia's southern borders.

❶Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation