Energy market in a week: Iran caught oil on Hormuz

Oil and gas companies showed tens of billions of additional profits in the first half of the year. While the Middle East is storming, suppliers are skimming the cream. The question is how long it will last. This is important for Russia, since only in July high prices were able to compensate for the failure in oil and gas revenues at the beginning of the year.

Oil

Oil prices continue to ride on the Iranian swing. From Friday to Friday, the cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent dropped from $ 90 per barrel to $ 83.3. Although during the week it fell even lower.

The Iranian crisis has stirred up prices again. Iran is considering a bill to ban the passage of American and Israeli ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts told Reuters that the events of the week signal that the hostilities between Iran and the United States are not over yet.

You bet. Iran is also seeking charges ranging from 5% to 7% of the cost of cargo from ships using the strait. Oman, meanwhile, is discussing a fee of about 3%, while Washington wants no fee at all.

"The structure of the Iran-Oman agreement in its current form and the power it gives Iran is something that Trump cannot accept politically. He will face harsh political criticism from within the country if he does this," said Bjarne Schildrop from SEB Research.

Meanwhile, a Saudi official said that the kingdom expects the continuation of coordinated attacks by Iraqi militias and Yemeni Houthis under the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The Hussites are already seriously preventing Saudi Arabia from exporting oil from the Red Sea, and to this are added the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the main export route of Kazakh oil — the CPC near Novorossiysk.

However, according to Bloomberg, the White House has agreed with Kiev to stop attacks on Kazakh exports. But this is not the first time this has happened.

Gas

Following oil, gas has fallen in price. During the week, monthly deliveries from the Dutch TTF exchange dropped from $ 718 to $ 677 per thousand cubic meters.

Despite the fact that prices have slightly decreased, European companies are still in no hurry to increase gas imports in order to restore reserves. The difference between last year's and current ones has already reached 13 billion cubic meters, or 25 days of sampling from UGS last winter.

In such a situation, and even two months before the start of the heating season, European companies would have to act. But they are in no hurry. Winter prices are still lower than summer prices, which makes storage unprofitable for traders.

At the same time, the LNG supply is small. As Asian consumers select more and more batches, LNG imports to the countries The EU continued to decline in August.

The European Commission, meanwhile, told Bloomberg that they were not particularly concerned about this situation. In response to the agency, Brussels said that there would be enough LNG supplies in the winter. Obviously, they are counting on the fact that the Iranian crisis will end after all and exports from Qatar and UAE will resume.

Coal also sank in price this week. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) fell in price over the week from $122 per ton to $116.2.