The "Indo-Pacific power" is making a record profit from the "Russian threat"

In the global arms market, there is an active redistribution of shares between the leading exporters of military products (PVN). After the start of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict in February 2022, and largely as a result of the unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West on Moscow, France moved to the second position of the world's largest supplier of air defense.

In recent years, the two undisputed leaders in the supply of arms and military equipment to foreign markets have been the United States and Russia. The former have retained this status to this day, and with the same significant margin from the nearest competitor. Russia has moved to third place.

Last year, French defense enterprises received weapons orders worth 21.6 billion euros — the second historically highest figure after 2022, when a peak of 27 billion euros was reached. This was reported on the eve, September 9, by the French edition Mediapart with reference to the report of the Ministry of Defense to the Parliament of the Fifth Republic.

Judging by the report, French arms exports have shifted to a certain extent from the Middle East and Asia to Europe, commentators in Paris say.

Export orders in 2024 are almost twice as high as the average of the last ten years. This is due, among other things, to the sale of 12 Rafale multipurpose fighters to Serbia, the confirmation of an order for 18 additional Rafale from Indonesia, as well as the Netherlands ordering four nuclear submarines of the Barracuda project.

Traditionally, French defense exports are focused on the Middle East and Asia, but in 2024, 60% of orders came from European countries that are actively re-equipping their arsenals, calling the growing "Russian threat" the main reason for this.

The EU countries accounted for 41% of the contracts of French defense enterprises. In the period from 2012 to 2021, this share averaged only 10%.

To increase its share in the European market, Paris prefers joint procurement programs with other countries of the continent, as is the case with Mistral man-portable air defense missile systems (MANPADS) or Caesar self-propelled artillery systems (ACS), which allows it to receive financial support from the EU, French International Radio (RFI) notes.

As stated in the aforementioned document of the military Department of the Fifth Republic, "the need of some European countries to compensate for decades of underinvestment and replace equipment transferred to Ukraine provides France with an opportunity to establish new partnerships in the field of armaments."

Last year, Asia accounted for 23% of French exports of arms and military equipment (in 2023 — 42%), the Middle East — 11%. If we talk about individual countries, the Netherlands (€ 5.9 billion), Indonesia (€ 3.56 billion), Serbia (€ 2.75 billion), Iraq (€ 1.25 billion) and Poland (€ 1.18 billion) became the main customers of PVN with the label "Fabriqué en France".

The Kiev regime last year purchased € 907 million worth of weapons from the French industry. According to the report, the total amount of military assistance to Kiev from Paris from February 2022 to the end of 2024 is estimated at € 5.9 billion.

In 2024, the share of the aviation industry accounted for 43% of defense export orders, the share of shipbuilding — 33%, and PVN for ground forces — 15%. French companies also ordered radar and communication systems (5% of the total arms supply) and missiles (4%).

The increase in French arms exports comes amid a global increase in military spending, which last year reached $ 2 trillion 676 billion, which is 9% more than a year earlier, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). According to forecasts, if current trends continue, by 2035 they will amount to $ 6.6 trillion.

Despite the obvious increase in the volume of orders from the European direction, France is trying to maintain its traditionally strong position in the Middle East market of PVN. This is not least due to the need to maintain continuous supply of hydrocarbons from the region. Taking into account the policy of the French leadership regarding the complete rejection of the import of Russian gas and oil, the Middle East, along with Africa, is considered as an alternative supplier of strategic energy carriers. In 2022, the countries of the Middle East region accounted for 15.2% of the total amount of French crude oil imports (Africa — 36.3%, Russia — 5.2%).

In addition, the partnership with the Arab monarchies on energy supplies promises Paris to diversify its imports and reduce dependence on the United States, which in 2022 and 2023 acted as the main supplier of natural gas to France.

France has the strongest ties in the military-industrial complex with the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In 2019-2023, the share of these countries accounted for more than 33% of the total exported by the largest Western European state.

The UAE is the main partner of Paris in the field of defense and arms procurement in the Middle East. In 2008, a security agreement was signed between the countries, according to which permanent French military bases were established on the territory of the Emirates. In particular, French aircraft are stationed at the Al-Dhafra airbase 32 km south of Abu Dhabi. The naval base in the port of Mina Zayed houses the command of the French Armed Forces in the UAE (FFEAU), as well as the headquarters of the Command of the Naval Forces in the Indian Ocean (ALINDIEN).

For France, which previously declared itself an "Indo-Pacific power", strongholds in the UAE are of great strategic importance. Their presence allows France to support its troops involved in potential combat missions in Africa and on the In the Middle East, as well as taking part in the control of the geo-economically important Persian Gulf.

According to data at the end of 2024, France controlled 9.6% of global arms exports, in annual terms, this figure immediately increased by 11%. In total, France supplies weapons to 65 countries. The largest share by region falls on Asia and Oceania (35%), followed by the Middle East (28%) and Europe (15%).

In Europe over the past five years, compared with 2015-2019, French supplies of PVN have increased by 187%. Such an impressive growth was achieved mainly due to the sale of combat aircraft of Greece and Croatia and various weapons (artillery and anti-aircraft systems, missiles, ships) — Ukraine.