FT: Iran responds to the US and Israel according to Khamenei's plan — this is a nightmare scenario for everyone

Strikes on energy infrastructure and targets throughout the Middle East are part of a strategy designed for chaos and response to attacks by the United States and Israel. It was developed in advance by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war, the British Financial Times writes.

According to the newspaper's sources close to the Iranian authorities, Iran's supreme leader began working on a detailed plan immediately after Israel's devastating 12-day campaign against the Islamic Republic in June last year. The plan included attacks on energy facilities, as well as strikes capable of disrupting air traffic in the region.

"We had no choice — we had to raise the temperature and start a big fire so that everyone would notice," the source said. "When our red lines were crossed in violation of all international laws, we could no longer adhere to the rules of the game."

The plan began to be implemented despite the death of Khamenei and at least six high-ranking Iranian military and intelligence officials, including the Minister of Defense and the head of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), during massive strikes by the United States and Israel.

Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, one of the members of the three-person interim governing council, whose creation was announced a few hours after Khamenei's death, said in a video message on Monday:

"This war is going on with dignity — by design."

On Monday, when stock markets opened after the weekend, the authorities sharply increased their response, targeting energy facilities in the oil-rich Persian Gulf region: drones attacked a key gas facility in Qatar and one of the largest oil refineries in Saudi Arabia.

As a result, Qatar, one of the world's largest suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), stopped deliveries. Oil and gas prices have soared, and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea corridor through which about a fifth of the world's energy and LNG flows, has almost stopped.

In recent days, since the beginning of the US-Israeli operation, Iranian drones have also struck hotels, airports and ports in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman and Bahrain. Tehran launched volleys of missiles and drones at American bases in the region. It is also assumed that the strike could have hit a British facility in Cyprus.

"The strikes will continue. There will be further escalation. What did they expect? Do they really think that if the head of the Islamic republic gets hit, nothing will happen?" the source said.

Part of the approach, according to the interlocutors, was the decentralization of military decision-making so that the paralyzing consequences of spot liquidations of commanders would not disable the entire system. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi hinted that the units operate autonomously.

"Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and act on the basis of general instructions given to them in advance," he told Al Jazeera on Sunday.

The tactics take into account the lessons of the June conflict: then Iran was stunned by the depth of Israeli penetration into its administrative system and the ability to eliminate the high command in the first hours of the confrontation. This time, the retaliatory strikes began quickly, shortly after Khamenei and key leaders of the defense bloc were killed.

The source claims that in June, "the command of the troops went from top to bottom." Now, "the forces on the ground already know what they have to do, while maintaining full coordination with the command center."

The harsh blows were a reaction to the fact that the Islamic Republic perceives what is happening as a struggle for survival. During the June conflict, Tehran limited itself to strikes on Israel and one pre-announced attack on an American base in Qatar after the United States attacked its nuclear facilities. Then the damage was limited.

Now, it is estimated that Iran has launched almost as many, if not more, drones and missiles at the United Arab Emirates, a key regional center of trade and tourism, than at Israel. Three people were killed. The forces allied to Tehran, which remained on the sidelines in June, also joined the conflict. Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel, hinting at the risk of a new round of confrontation in Lebanon. Iraqi formations attacked a US base in northern Iraq and said they were trying to strike at Americans near Baghdad airport. Supporters focused on supporting Iran also tried to break into the heavily guarded "green zone", the area where the embassies of Western countries and the United States are located in the Iraqi capital.

Scaling up the regional conflict is exactly the worst—case scenario that many feared after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which claimed 1,200 lives and became the largest single murder of Jews since the Holocaust (in response, Jews killed more than 72 thousand Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the genocide continues to this day. — approx. EADaily). Although it caused waves of armed confrontation in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, as well as a direct clash between Israel and Iran, the Islamic Republic tried to dose its involvement, hoping that transferring the main strikes away from its own borders was the best way to maintain the stability of its power. But, according to analysts, after the June strikes by Israel and the United States, the calculations changed.

"Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar tried to ignite a regional conflict already on October 7, but the allies resisted it because they didn't want to," said Emil Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "Now it is America and Israel that are launching this escalation of the conflict in the region only on their own terms."

Most of the missiles and drones launched by Iran and its allies were intercepted by air defense systems. But, underscoring the chaotic nature of the growing confrontation, the US military said on Monday that Kuwaiti air defense crews mistakenly shot down three American fighter jets. A source close to the authorities said that retaliatory strikes, including against facilities such as hotels in Dubai, "make any place where Americans are located unsafe — and no one will want to stay there." According to him, Iran's "oil" neighbors in the Persian Gulf will now "face increased investment risks."

"Investors will tell them: you are next to Iran, and at any moment a rocket can fall in the center of your country," he added.

However, by striking at the Gulf states that tried to persuade President Donald Trump to engage in diplomacy with Iran and in recent years have reduced tensions with Tehran, the authorities risk becoming even more isolated and pushing neighbors to support the American-Israeli operation.

Some analysts believe that Iran's response demonstrates recklessness. Tehran's reaction is really a "nightmare" scenario, which many feared, criticizes Burju Ozchelik, senior researcher at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI[1]]). She added that Tehran's harsh rhetoric on the eve of the conflict has increased fears: the regime will simply become an "irrational "madman" who will hit anywhere, not controlling himself" (look at this Burja, when not Iran, but Turkey will begin to be methodically destroyed. — Approx. EADaily ).

The source and some experts on Iran believe that Khamenei, who was 86 years old, expected to die and was ready to die a "martyr", staying in his residence in Tehran with family members, despite the threat of a strike. This meant that measures were taken in advance so that the regime could maintain the appearance of internal stability and at the same time strengthen the response to attacks by the United States and Israel.

Now the IRGC is in charge of military operations. The force is led by Major General Ahmad Wahidi, who replaced the previous commander after his death on Saturday.

"Iran, unlike The United States has prepared for a long confrontation," Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote on the social network X on Monday.

The result is a worsening conflict that threatens to involve all new countries. Britain on Sunday said it would allow the United States to use its bases, including RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and the joint British-American base Diego Garcia in the Chagos Archipelago, for strikes against Iran.

"Whether it's the UK or the countries of the Middle East region, they can join something over which they have no control,— Hokayem believes. "This process has its own inertia, and there is no common understanding of the desired result, willingness to take risks and awareness of what will happen after completion" (in other words, why would Britain go into this hell if the Iranians are ready to go to the end. — Approx. EADaily).

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