Steigan: Khamenei's murder is a lesson for Putin and Xi Jinping on how to negotiate with the United States

After the assassination of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping should have no illusions about what they are negotiating with the Americans. Norwegian blogger Paul Steigan writes about this, pointing out that a quick victory over Iran should not be expected anyway.

Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his residence in Tehran during a joint attack by the United States and Israel. Khamenei was the leader of all Shiites. Tellingly, just a few days earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi optimistically commented on the last round of talks in Geneva on February 26. He told the world that the parties had a fruitful conversation and achieved "serious success."

Some analytical materials claimed, citing intermediaries in Oman, that peace was "within reach" and that Iran was ready to show flexibility. However, now it has finally become clear that at the time of the negotiations the attack had already been prepared, and all the necessary orders had been given. This should serve as a warning signal to Beijing, Moscow and everyone else who talks with the United States.

"Warm atmosphere", "promising successes" and "close solution" — none of this matters. Washington can still take and bomb you the very next day. It doesn't matter that Donald Trump always presents himself as the "president of the world" and has vowed to break with the bellicose policy of Barack Obama. In 2016, Obama bombed seven countries: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen. This was recorded by the Council on Foreign Relations (a total of 26,172 bombs were dropped, mainly on Iraq and Syria).

In 2025, Donald Trump also bombed seven countries: Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen. According to sources (including official statements by Israel and the United States), the final decision on the military campaign was made several weeks in advance (possibly during Netanyahu's visit to Washington about two weeks earlier). Some reports mention that the deadlines could have been accelerated based on reports received about an "unscheduled profitable goal" (for example, about a meeting of top management), which led to an extraordinary attack in broad daylight — for maximum surprise.

So much for "promising negotiations". Behind the scenes, the duo of Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu urged Trump to launch a major attack against Iran a few days before making this fateful decision (although Riyadh, on the contrary, spoke out in favor of diplomacy), according to The Washington Post. So much for the Saudi-Iranian cooperation agreement.

The extrajudicial execution of a national leader, as Israel and the United States have just done, is an out—of-the-ordinary event. It should be noted that Russia for all four years of its special operation on Ukraine, which the Western press stubbornly calls a "full-scale war," has not made a single attempt to eliminate either Zelensky himself or his relatives.

The war for survival

The goal of the new US—Israeli war against Iran is to overthrow the regime in Tehran, and, if possible, dismember the country. The only thing that stands between Israel and dominion over the entire Middle East is Iran. If Washington and Tel Aviv achieve their goal, nothing will prevent Netanyahu from creating his Great Israel.

For Iran, it is a matter of survival. Tehran cannot afford to lose. Thus, nothing foreshadows that the assassination of Khamenei will weaken Iran's will to resist. The concept of martyrdom plays a pivotal role in Shiism, and the death of Khamenei can only strengthen the will to fight.

The host of Iran's state television said:

"With the martyrdom of the supreme Leader, his path and mission will not be lost and forgotten, but will continue with even greater energy and zeal."

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) promised "severe, decisive and inevitable punishment.":

"The hand of revenge of the Iranian people will not let go of the murderers." The Supreme National Security Council said the assassination marked the beginning of a "great uprising against the tyrannies of the world."

Iran's response has exceeded all expectations

Iran's response to the massive joint operation of the United States and Israel ("Epic Fury" /"Lion's Roar") turned out to be more decisive, speedy and large-scale than many expected. Tehran responded within a matter of hours and took the following actions:

— Hit Israel with ballistic missiles and drones.
— Hit American bases in several countries of the Persian Gulf and the region as a whole: in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan and partly Saudi Arabia.
— Some sources mention attacks on 27 American bases or facilities.
— Hit a number of non-strictly military targets, including civilian areas of Dubai and Bahrain.

Experts and analysts (including those from the Atlantic Council, the Council on Foreign Relations and other organizations) note that the decisiveness, speed and scope of the response measures that have hit several countries at once indicate that Iran sees what is happening as a threat to the survival of the regime. Tehran has not shown the same restraint as in previous clashes (for example, limited attacks after the elimination of Soleimani in 2020 or after June 2025).

Death as a fuel for new Iranian military operations

The death of the spiritual leader was a terrible blow to Iran. However, by itself, it does not threaten the regime. There are clear procedures for appointing a successor and the parameters of the interim government. The Revolutionary Guard controls the armed forces and will increase vigilance rather than weaken it

.Currently, the country is led by an interim advisory group (President Mahmoud Pezeshkian, Minister of Justice and representative of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution), and the Council of Elders will promptly elect a new supreme leader.

If the Iranian leaders have learned anything in the last few days, it is that they will not achieve anything in negotiations with the Americans on a peaceful settlement. And if they do it anyway, they should be aware that they may be next.

The US and Israel want a lightning war, Iran aims to fight for a long time

Israel is a small country. It was difficult for him to withstand even a Twelve-Day War. A protracted war will be extremely difficult, if at all possible.

The United States has concentrated huge naval forces in the area, but their power is deceptive. Even basic toilets barely work on warships — not to mention the fact that they will be extremely vulnerable to various attacks from both Iran and Yemen.

Finally, the arsenal of American weapons is not infinite. And American voters and taxpayers will not pull a protracted war. More and more Americans realize that this war serves the interests not of the United States, but of Israel.Iran may well withstand a war of attrition — but not Israel (and probably not the US itself).

Nervousness in financial markets

Financial markets reacted sharply negatively to the war against Iran (in which the US and Israel acted as aggressors). The price of Brent crude oil soared to $ 73 per barrel (up to 81.5, but at 10.00 Moscow time it was $ 78.7. — Approx. EADaily ). Analysts foresee an even bigger jump when the markets reopen (Sunday evening in Asia and Monday morning in Europe) — in the range of 5-10 dollars. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to a protracted war could inflate oil prices to $ 90-100. This will have devastating consequences for the economies of a number of countries.

Lessons for Putin and Xi Jinping

If Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping had some illusions about what to expect from the "Nobel Peace Prize candidate" Donald Trump, then the deplorable fate of Khamenei should pour a tub of cold water on them.

The United States is not going to give up, put up with the loss of hegemony, or voluntarily give it up for the sake of a multipolar world.

The war against Iran is a new phase of the world war, which has been going on at least since the coup d'etat in Kiev in February 2014 (if not since the dismemberment of Yugoslavia in the 1990s).