Gasoline in Russia holds a blow: in August they promise the hardest month

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to attack Russian oil refining and petrochemicals. In response, the government is taking measures to saturate the market. Experts say that the balance can be maintained, but the situation is on the verge of deficit every time.

Today, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked ZapSibNeftekhim in Tobolsk and refineries in Nizhnekamsk. Mass attacks have decreased, but continue. The government and companies are responding to unscheduled repairs after the attacks by speeding up work, banning imports, purchasing petroleum products abroad and reducing environmental requirements for fuel. According to experts, the situation has improved, but it is too early to talk about recovery.

"At least the queue sizes have clearly decreased. Of course, some of the drivers have optimized their movement, but there is some progress even against the background of ongoing enemy attacks. Therefore, the situation is definitely improving, but there are still empty gas stations, and private networks so far, alas, show quite high price levels," says Maxim Shaposhnikov, adviser to the Industrial Code fund manager.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia, notes that, on the one hand, the situation is improving because the refineries are being put into operation ahead of schedule and the measures that were taken have worked.

"For example, permission to sell Euro 3 fuel on the domestic market. Now we are talking about Euro 2, and the previous decision on euro 3 has already reached, let's say, the market. Plus, the hype demand has passed. And all this made it possible to stabilize the market," said the leading analyst of the FNEB.

On the other hand, in his opinion, the situation remains tense, as Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries.

"We are somewhere on the verge of a shortage. The most difficult period will be in August, as consumption remains high. In September, it will begin to decline, as people will return from vacations and from dachas. Especially gasoline will become easier. But what will happen from the point of view of production, it's hard to say here. The main strategic goal for us, of course, is to ensure the safety of the refinery. This would solve most of the problems with fuel," notes Igor Yushkov.

Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at FG Finam, believes that the situation on the fuel market has really improved significantly over the past month and a half.

"An increase in imports, a number of administrative measures, a decrease in demand, as well as a shift in the focus of UAV attacks from refineries to Wildberries assets have significantly improved the situation in the domestic fuel market. Against this background, Rosstat began to record a decrease in prices, and in many regions (especially in large cities) the deficit has actually come to naught," says Sergey Kaufman.

But, the expert continues, while the volume of oil refining remains about 25% below the normal level, that is, it is too early to talk about the full normalization of the situation.

"In our opinion, if oil refining volumes recover to at least 90% of the norm, we can expect a noticeable decrease in retail gasoline prices relative to current levels. We believe that in such a scenario, the growth of retail prices by the end of the year may be about 10%, with the current rise in price since the beginning of the year by almost 18%, according to Rosstat," the analyst of FG Finam notes.

He agrees that the situation may improve from mid-autumn, when the season of increased demand ends, but there is one "but".

"Our forecast for a decrease in retail prices requires the fulfillment of a number of "ifs". If the attacks on the refinery continue or even intensify, then it is, of course, difficult to count on further improvement in the retail situation," adds Sergey Kaufman.