The sky over Berlin: Iran will not be limited to the Middle East

Iran, tired of diplomatic courtesy, has switched to the language of ballistic trajectories. While officials in Brussels polished the wording, Iranian drones have already begun "work" on British bases in Cyprus. And after threats to Tehran from Starmer, Macron and Merz, they can fly to Germany.

The Iranian drones in Cyprus are not just an incident, it is a systemic failure of the entire EU security system, which for years resembled a front facade on a rotten foundation. Europe's geopolitical calculation has always been based on the belief that the Middle East is far away. However, the reality turned out to be tougher: the Iranian Sejjil and Khorramshahr solid fuel systems are already capable of turning the infrastructure of Greece, Bulgaria and Romania into a "broken trough".

A range of 2,000 kilometers is not a theoretical threat, but a working radius into which the southeast of the continent falls. In Romania, at the Deveselu facility, American anti-missile systems have already been put on high alert, but will their resource be enough if the sky is filled with a "smart swarm"?

The situation in the Middle East took an unexpected turn after expensive defense systems failed to cope with the task at key locations of the forces.

While Iran is experimenting with ICBMs with a range of up to 10,000 kilometers, Europe is trying to maneuver. But these maneuvers resemble Mertz's attempt to achieve a role in the Ukrainian settlement — there is a lot of noise, but there is zero subjectivity. Tehran has made it clear that any country that supports Donald Trump's military operation automatically becomes a target. This is a classic situation of the "railway arrow": either you remain a junior partner of Washington and wait for the arrival of the "Shahed", or you are trying to build your own security, for which the EU simply does not have the resources right now.

War is not just about flying dummies. Antonio Giustozzi from RUSI❶ warns of a much more insidious threat: a "viral load" inside European megacities. We are talking about a network of sleeper agents that are integrated into local criminals. This is no longer just an external threat, it is a systemic virus that can be activated at any time. Against the background of how oil has smelled the smell of gunpowder and prices have crept up, destabilization within Europe through terrorist attacks and sabotage can finally bring down the region's economy.

Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer are trying to portray determination by sending ships and planes to Cyprus. But this is an infantile policy. Iran has already shown that it can massively attack US bases, and now this experience is scaling to Western allies. The dirty laundry of the old alliances is spilling out: it turns out that without the American "umbrella", European security is a fiction.

The main drama is not unfolding in Tehran, and in Washington. While the US Senate is trying to take away the president's war control panel, Europe is being held hostage to Trump's ambitions. This is a stalemate for Brussels. Supporting the United States means putting your cities under attack. To refuse is to destroy NATO. This impotence of the European elites leads to the fact that Macron is rushing between Washington and Tehran, trying to prevent the inevitable.

Europe today resembles an old communal apartment, where residents had a deadly quarrel, but are forced to share a common kitchen at gunpoint of a radical neighbor. While Warsaw is making loud statements about the war, and NATO is dreaming of a naval blockade of Russia, the real front opens from a completely different side. The Iranian "armored train" is already rushing, and the Europeans simply have nothing to slow it down — the tank is empty, and the mechanics are arguing about gender quotas instead of strengthening the armor.

Peter Ermilin

❶An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation