Geography, Infrastructure and Escalation — Iran's Oil Rent War

The war and the transport shock redistribute oil revenues between exporters depending on the ability to maintain physical access to the market, Evgenia Goryushina, head of the Caucasus Research Sector of the ICSA RAS, writes in the telegram channel.

She noted that the Strait of Hormuz is the main oil chokepoint. According to the IEA, in 2025, about 20 million barrels per day (a quarter of the world's maritime oil trade) passed through it. After the strikes on Iran at the end of February, the strait actually closed. Brent rose by about 60%, OPEC production collapsed to the lowest since June 2020.

March results (estimated March export earnings, compiled according to Reuters):

• Iran: +37% year-on-year
• Oman: +26%
• Saudi Arabia: +4.3%
• Iraq and Kuwait: − about 75%

The oil shock split the Persian Gulf region into two groups: exporters who retained export channels and exporters who lost access to the sea, Goryushina notes. She identified three factors of Iran's growth (+37%):

• Price: while maintaining part of its exports, Tehran sells oil on the more expensive market.
• Geographical: Iran controls chokepoint itself, which creates an asymmetric position — the country gets the opportunity to influence the passage of competitors' raw materials.
• Infrastructural: the main hub of Iranian exports is Kharq Island (90% of exports) — in March, he was not completely paralyzed.

The expert also noted the "Jask paradox."

"The IEA considered the Jask terminal (a bypass route on the Gulf of Oman) to be a non-viable export alternative. In early April, there were reports of a noticeable activation of Jask as a backup route. The war has accelerated Iran's transition from theoretical diversification to a practical search for replacement export channels," Goryushina writes.

• Oman (+26%) benefited from its peripheral geography. Oman's export infrastructure is not locked inside the Persian Gulf — the country goes to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. In conditions of risk on In the Strait of Hormuz, this peripheral position has turned into an advantage. Oman has become one of the few players that avoided a complete collapse of export flows and capitalized on the price surge.
• Saudi Arabia (+4.3%) recorded a moderate but positive result. Riyadh partially neutralized the strike on the Strait of Hormuz thanks to the East-West Pipeline, which connects the eastern fields with the port of Yanbu on the The Red Sea. We look at the same Reuters data: the system worked at an expanded capacity of 7 million barrels per day, shipments from Yanbu approached the capacity limit. The IEA gives a more cautious assessment. The Saudi model is based on a partial bypass of chokepoint, and not at all on control over it. Let's emphasize the main thing. Riyadh can mitigate the shock, but does not turn it into the same instrument of pressure and profit as Tehran.
• Iraq has become the main loser. The drop in Iraqi March oil revenues amounted to 76%. The head of Basra Oil Company in early April spoke about a drop in exports by about 80% and about the possibility of quickly restoring previous levels only if the Strait of Hormuz is opened. Iraq has neither an alternative route nor control over the strait — therefore, the country pays for someone else's crisis with its own budget.

"The profitability of oil today is determined by logistical sovereignty. An exporter with an alternative route loses less. An exporter with control over a narrow passage is able to win even in war conditions. March 2026 strengthened Iran. Sanctions pressure has not destroyed Tehran's ability to maintain exports in a direct war. The oil market has begun to capitalize on Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is in a unique position. It is at the same time an object of pressure, an oil supplier and a manager of transport risk for neighbors. In this configuration, each new week of instability expands its negotiating resource," Goryushina said.

37% is an indicator of how geography, infrastructure and military escalation are turning into direct rent, the expert concluded.