How it was: why the USA and Iran has come to a truce — Axios version

The American portal Axios, which can be considered pro-republican and moderately conservative, published a version of the latest events preceding Donald Trump's statement on a truce with Iran. The translation is given without comment.

On Monday, officials in the United States and Israel learned of an intriguing event: President Donald Trump's ultimatum is about to expire. Supreme Leader Mojtab Khamenei has instructed his negotiators to move towards an agreement for the first time since the start of the war, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source familiar with the situation.

The big picture: while Trump publicly threatened Iran with total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — although even sources close to Trump did not know what outcome to expect, right up to the announcement of the cease-fire. American troops in the Middle East and officials in The Pentagon has spent these last hours preparing for a massive bombing of Iranian infrastructure and trying to figure out which way Trump will lean.

"We had no idea what was going to happen. It was crazy," said the representative of the Ministry of Defense.

Allies in the region were preparing for an unprecedented retaliatory strike by Iran. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes, trying to avoid the bulk of the strikes.

This story about the diplomacy that prevented the escalation is based so far on conversations with eleven sources familiar with the negotiations.

On Monday morning, when Trump was talking to those gathered at the Easter celebration at the White House, an "extremely angry" Steve Witkoff was calling everyone. According to a source directly familiar with the situation, the American envoy told the mediators that the 10-point counterproposal that the United States had just received from Iran was "a disaster, a disaster."

This marked the beginning of a "day of chaos" with amendments: Pakistani mediators exchanged new projects between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, and the foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey tried to help overcome differences. By Monday evening, the mediators had received US approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. After that, Khamenei — who, according to sources, was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — had to make a decision.

The intrigue was that the participation of the new supreme leader was, due to circumstances, secret and time-consuming. Faced with an active threat of assassination from Israel, Khamenei communicated mainly through couriers delivering notes. Two sources called Khamenei's blessing to the negotiators to conclude the deal a "breakthrough." A regional source said Araqchi also played a central role in both negotiating and persuading IRGC commanders to accept the deal. China also advised Iran to seek a way out of the conflict. But in the end, all the major decisions on Monday and Tuesday were made by Khamenei.

"Without his green light, there would have been no deal," a regional source said.

By Tuesday morning (April 7), it became clear that there was progress, but this did not prevent Trump from making his most terrifying threat: "An entire civilization will die tonight." Some American media reported that Iran interrupted the negotiations in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that this is not the case, and that in fact there is some progress. Vice President Vance was on the phone from Hungary, mostly communicating with Pakistanis.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact with Trump and his team during the day - the Israelis were increasingly worried that they had lost control of the process. By about noon Eastern time, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week cease-fire. Three hours later, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif published the terms on X and called on both sides to accept them.

Trump immediately began receiving calls and text messages from belligerent allies and confidants urging them to reject. Even among Trump's closest associates, there was such confusion about his intentions that many people who spoke with him just an hour or two ago still believed that he would refuse the cease—fire proposal - right up to the moment he accepted it.

Shortly before the publication of his response, Trump spoke with Netanyahu to get confirmation from him of compliance with the ceasefire. He then spoke with Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir to finalize the deal. American troops were ordered to cease fire 15 minutes after Trump's post. Araqchi continued by stating that Iran will observe the ceasefire and will open the Strait of Hormuz to ships operating "in coordination with the Iranian armed forces."

To what extent will Iran allow the resumption of shipping, or how steadfastly will Netanyahu abide by the ceasefire? A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received assurances from the United States that in peace talks Iran would insist on abandoning its nuclear materials, stopping uranium enrichment and abandoning the threat of ballistic missiles. Vance is likely to lead the American delegation at the talks scheduled for Friday in Moscow. In Pakistan, this is by far the most important task in his political career.

Between the USA and There are still significant disagreements with Iran regarding the deal, which creates a very real possibility of a resumption of war. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and press Secretary Caroline Leavitt are expected to hold press conferences today, where they will sharply criticize those who criticized Trump's promises to destroy Iran. They will argue that it was Trump's threats that made the deal possible. The Iranian regime, which puts forward exactly the opposite arguments, may wonder if Trump's threats have really stopped completely.