Energy market in a week: in Europe, they are beginning to understand that everything is wrong with gas

The world is getting used to the Iranian crisis, as well as oil and gas prices have already taken their new positions and are not going to surrender them. The markets are hoping for peace, as they are convinced by the White House, which is interested in lowering prices. Nevertheless, weeks go by weeks and the time is approaching when oil reserves will become unbearably low, and Europe will finally feel that there is no more gas after the suspension of exports from Qatar and the UAE.

Oil

Oil quotes are stuck above $90 per barrel. The cost of the benchmark North Sea Brent from Friday to Friday increased from $ 91.9 to $ 93 per barrel.

On the one hand, Israel, with the mediation of the United States, reached an agreement with Lebanon on the cessation of hostilities. On the other hand, the USA and Iran continued to exchange blows and an explosion occurred in the Omani oil port.

"Since the hopes for an agreement between the United States and Iran collapsed again, Brent crude and European natural gas prices rose slightly this week," analysts at Commerzbank told Reuters.

However, the rise in Brent prices was limited by a longer-than-expected oil reserve, a redirection of exports and a drop in demand, Commerzbank added.

"Any optimism is still heavily overshadowed by a tangled web of headlines and counter-headlines," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Gais said that the organization adheres to its forecast of oil demand growth this year at 1.2 million barrels per day, despite the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gas

The cost of gas in Europe swings like a pendulum. During the week, deliveries for a month in advance from the TTF exchange went up from $ 560 to $ 589 per thousand cubic meters.

At the same time, the situation on the European gas market has not changed much. LNG supplies are in a reduced volume, Norway continues preventive repairs, while inventory replenishment is still sluggish.

What has changed is the attitude of individual EU governments. For example, the Netherlands will allocate a subsidy of $ 1.2 billion to the state—owned company EBN Capital BV to fill the storage facilities - even if it is unprofitable. However, in Germany, for example, they are not going to intervene yet.

The current injection into storage facilities will allow Europe to fill them only by 70%. And the consulting company Bernstein said that gas in Europe should rise in price by another 40%-50% so that the region could attract enough fuel and not lose competition with Asia, where the cost of gas has become higher than the European one.

"With the current differences, Europe is clearly losing the fight for cargo," the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, coal continues to show stability and is getting more expensive. Deliveries for a month in advance from the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam hub (ARA) increased in a week from $ 130.2 per ton to $ 134.3. Indonesia's plans to transfer all coal sales abroad under state control and emergency at one of the Chinese mines play along with the quotes. Inspections by the authorities of other mines can significantly limit the production of stone fuel in the PRC.