Trump is close to capitulation: Iran has used its "nuclear weapons"

The US capitulation in the war with Iran is close, unless Tehran is stupid and does not give up its "nuclear weapons". If the United States does not give up, we will talk about a complete collapse of world trade, says columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

The mediators of US President Donald Trump are seeking a 45-day truce with the suspension of the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Such an initiative, for example, is being developed by Pakistan. But it is the blocking of outgoing traffic from The Strait of Hormuz and the continuous destruction of the energy and port infrastructure of the Middle East countries are Iran's main "nuclear" weapon in this war. And it works.

It should be borne in mind that in addition to oil and gas, the global traffic of other important materials — helium, sulfur, aluminum, fertilizers, petrochemical products - is now delayed. In March, the world economy was still living at the expense of goods in transit and commercial stocks, so the main problems will begin in the near future, when the physical shortage of oil and petroleum products, according to experts, may reach 8-10 million barrels. /day, as 4-5 million barrels. / day is compensated from the reduction of strategic reserves.

First, the fuel sector will fail (jet fuel is already in severe deficit), then chemical, food, construction, technological, then consumer demand will fall due to inflation, then the capital market will enter a stupor in the absence of a mitigation maneuver by the world Central Bank again due to inflation, then employment will collapse, which will lead to a crisis in the sphere services and its strengthening in the debt market. Protests and anti—war rallies will begin, and here's Trump for you - the second Nixon of the Vietnam War.

At the same time, the economies sanctioned by the West with low debts and the availability of resources — Russian, Iranian, North Korean - will be more stable, besides helping each other.

Iran is well aware that as soon as it goes to a truce, it will cease to be of interest to anyone, and the war will go into its finishing mode. Another option is that Iran will finish off the world economy and force Trump to shamefully capitulate with the collapse of sanctions regimes against both sellers and consumers (secondary sanctions).

The reality is that the United States is not in control of the situation, Iran has stabilized military pressure on the region, and the margin of safety of the global economy may be lower than Iran's reserves of strike weapons until they are completely exhausted. As a rule, such expectations are not met, and in Tehran understands that the United States does not want the "democratization" of Iran at all, they are ready to leave chaos in Iran, as it was previously in other countries.

But in Despite all ethnic differences in Iran (Persians, Azerbaijanis, Kurds), there is an entrenched Iranian identity within the framework of millennia of common history. The Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988 demonstrated that Iranian society is able to bear enormous sacrifices (up to 1 million dead and wounded) and not lose the will to resist. In Iran, the government is supported by multiple decision-making centers with cross-control.

During the war, it belongs to the IRGC, which is arranged according to the "hydra" type, when during the liquidation of the command link, automatic replacement by lower-ranking commanders occurs. This system has formed underground cities for missile and nuclear capabilities, produces a wide range of UAVs and missiles, and has a network of regional proxy forces in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

If it is impossible to achieve either political or military goals in Iran without a ground operation, this implies the capitulation of the United States in the region as the economic and financial costs escalate. It will look like the withdrawal of the American contingent and the closure of key military bases in In the Persian Gulf, as well as the US consent to Iran's having nuclear weapons without imposing new sanctions and the return to Tehran of all blocked funds (tens of billions of dollars) without any conditions.

Trump's tantrums with ultimatums about the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz or "plunging into the Stone Age" indicate that capitulation is close.