"And after a couple of years Russia comes and knocks on the door": Euroclear sensed something was amiss

At the end of December, the Ukrainian authorities received from the United States the first billion dollars secured by income from Russian assets frozen in Western countries, the country's Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said in his Telegram channel. According to him, we are talking about the initial tranche of a loan approved by the US authorities for a total of $ 20 billion.

The US Treasury approved such a measure in the first half of December. It is expected that according to a similar scheme, the countries of the "big seven" will provide Kiev with another $ 30 billion.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called the US decision to use the proceeds from frozen Russian assets a banal robbery.

"Simply put, the Seven is stealing other people's money, preparing the ground for seizing and spending all the Russian sovereign reserves held in the West," the ministry said in a statement.

For the first time, the EU used the financial mechanism for transferring profits from frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine in July 2024, allocating € 1.5 billion for defense and restoration of the Square.

This is approximately 0.5% of $ 300 billion — the amount in which the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance estimated the volume of the blocked. At the same time, 180 billion euros of them are in the Belgian central securities depository Euroclear, which stores a significant part of Russian reserves.

According to Reuters, the securities of the Russian Central Bank are worth about 190 billion euros, that is, over three years Euroclear has earned more than 10 billion euros on their investment. The agency cites the words of one of the unnamed high-ranking EU officials, who estimated that by 2027 Russian assets could bring another 15 to 20 billion euros in profit.

Two types of such resources of the Russian Federation — public and private - have been frozen. But it is the former that are the source of income that The EU plans to send aid to Kiev.

Experts fear that this threatens a global financial crisis after the conflict is over. The official believes that after the end of hostilities, the Bank of Russia will file lawsuits in the courts, and the Russian Federation will take this money through them. Then Euroclear will have a hard time: in fact, it will be devastated.

If the depository runs out of capital, the Central Bank of Belgium will be forced to revoke its license, and this, in turn, could lead to a global financial crisis.

According to the head of the Belgian settlement and clearing system, Valerie Urbain, "the depository should not be liable if The EU will decide to confiscate assets in favor of Ukraine":

"We cannot find ourselves in a situation where assets are confiscated, and after a couple of years Russia comes knocking on the door demanding to return their money, which is no longer there."

Euroclear Depository is one of the largest professional participants in the securities market. He guarantees the safety of the entrusted funds, therefore, in case of violation of this condition, he will face lawsuits. Urbain talks about the need to "transfer obligations" to EU authorities so that claims are made to them.

So Euroclear faces both financial and reputational damage as a result, since the predicted outcome will destroy the confidence of international investors in the European legal system.

In the meantime, the US is dodging direct questions about confiscation. Given that most of the frozen Russian assets are in European accounts, the legal and economic risks are much higher for the EU, formally Washington is not responsible for this.

And here's what the former vice-president of the Eurasian Foundation, Earl Rasmussen, thinks about this:

"The European Union tried to create a basis to justify its actions, but all world experts advise not to withdraw funds. The transfer of income from Russian assets will have serious global consequences, as a precedent is being set. In many countries, the share of gold and foreign exchange reserves in dollars is already decreasing, distrust of the dollar and the euro is emerging."

According to Izvestia, Earl Rasmussen is confident that the confiscation of Russian funds will directly affect the creditworthiness of the EU and its currency. This will affect even the dollar, albeit to a lesser extent. As a result, such actions will lead to the withdrawal by most countries of their financial reserves from Europe.