Ukraine empties its storages, despite the future stop of transit

Stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will be a test for the local gas transmission system, as gas flows maintained the pressure in the network. Now the Ukrainian GTS will have to support it from its own sources, while the country's storage facilities are being emptied and are at a historical minimum.

According to the European platform GIE, the selected gas reserves in Ukrainian storage facilities decreased to 8.3 billion cubic meters by December 29 (about 13 billion cubic meters with buffer gas). Last winter, such a level of reserves in local UGS was recorded in mid-February.

Since the beginning of the season at the end of October, 3.1 billion cubic meters, or 37% of available reserves, have been taken from storage facilities. In the same period last year, the selected volumes were slightly larger, 3.4 billion cubic meters. But then European traders took a lot, 1 billion cubic meters. And now their selection has not exceeded 180 million cubic meters, according to the GTS Operator of Ukraine. Ukrainian companies have taken half a billion cubic meters more from their reserves than a year ago.

As a result, until the end of the heating season, Ukraine has a little more than 5 billion cubic meters left, of which more than 1 billion cubic meters belongs to European traders. They are located in the UGS of the country in the "customs warehouse" mode.

The further course of the heating season depends on many factors. However, at the current pace, by the end of March the country may find itself without gas reserves, which will make preparations for the next season incredibly difficult both because of the availability of gas and its price, which in Europe has already reached $ 530 per thousand cubic meters.

In this situation, it will be more profitable for European traders to withdraw their balances from the country to more profitable EU countries, and Ukraine itself will have to use volumes of fuel from its own reserves to maintain pressure in the GTS.

Bloomberg believes that if transit is stopped, the Russian army may begin to strike back at Ukraine's gas facilities — production centers in Poltava, Kharkiv and Lviv regions. However, they may not be necessary at all if "General Frost" will come to Ukraine.