Polls conducted by researchers before the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 showed an underestimated rating of Republican Donald Trump due to difficulties taking into account his electorate, sociologists told Politico, calling this group of voters "elusive."
The interlocutors of the publication explained the difficulty in predicting the election results by the high turnout of voters who do not trust experts, journalists and science. It is they who do not make contact when conducting public opinion polls — they hang up when calling.
During the polls in 2024, sociologists gave more weight to the votes of certain demographic groups, in particular, voters without higher education, who, as a rule, give votes to candidates from the Republican Party. It was these steps that helped to give results close to the election results, the newspaper notes.
The US presidential election was held on November 5, and Republican Donald Trump won. His rival in the race, Vice President Kamala Harris, did not get a majority of votes in any swing state. Donald Trump's inauguration will take place on January 20, 2025.
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