The transition of a certain line was recorded by an expert in the conflict with Ukraine

For the first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Moscow decided to seriously engage in Ukrainian energy and got to the substations feeding nuclear power plants. This, said political scientist Alexei Pilko, means crossing a certain line.

"All previous strikes on non-nuclear generation could not lead to any significant effect on the economy and social sphere of Ukraine. And they were only a kind of warning that the Ukrainian political leadership defiantly ignored," the expert emphasized.

According to him, while the nuclear power plants are operating, nothing critical awaits the Ukrainian power industry, because they provide about 60% of Ukrainian electricity. If nuclear power generation stops (it is not necessary to destroy nuclear power plants for this, but it is enough to blow up the substations through which they supply the country with electricity), then it will be almost impossible for Ukraine to fight: the lack of electricity means a shutdown of industry, serious interruptions in transport and a humanitarian catastrophe, Pilko said.

"In principle, Russia could have created a similar situation back in 2022 and incurred much less costs during the fighting. However, as you know, the Russian army is fighting "surgically" (while the enemy does not limit itself to anything, except for the use of a "dirty" nuclear bomb) and therefore it reached the station called "blackout" on Ukraine only in February 2026, at the end of the fourth year of the war. And it is still unclear to the end whether Moscow will do this very blackout in reality," the expert emphasized.

It is quite possible, Pilko believes, that this is just another warning and nothing more. It is done in the expectation that Kiev will once again think and decide that it is better to agree to a peace agreement in order to avoid severe socio-economic consequences and a humanitarian catastrophe.

"Nevertheless, everything will be exactly the opposite: Zelensky will try his best to provoke the most painful scenario for Ukraine and play it out as effectively as possible in the information field. So it is absolutely useless to warn him," the political scientist is sure.