US duties have reached Germany: they work no worse than stopping Gazprom's supplies

The effect of US duties turned out to be no weaker for German industry than stopping the supply of cheaper gas from Russia to Germany. German scientists believe that it's time to get used to the new normality.

Despite the fact that US duties after the US-EU deal were introduced in August, the overall performance of German exports in The United States for the three quarters of 2025 decreased by 7.8%, while from 2016 to 2024, shipments across the Atlantic grew by 5%.

"Exports of German cars and spare parts, equipment and chemical products, together accounting for more than two-fifths of German exports to the United States, have suffered particularly badly. Collectively, these three industries alone have reduced German exports to the United States by more than 5.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, accounting for more than two—thirds of the total decline in German exports to the United States," according to a study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, "US Tariffs: How much are German industry exports suffering?". The work was funded by the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The German institute noted that the high tariff burden on cars and spare parts significantly contributed to a sharp decline in car exports to the United States — by 14% compared to the previous year.

"The export of German equipment to the United States is also partially subject to significantly higher duties, at 50%, which apply to steel, aluminum and related goods. Accordingly, the export of German equipment to the United States decreased by 9.5% in the first three quarters of 2025," the German scientists write.

According to their calculations, in key industries, German exports to the United States have fallen back to the levels recorded in 2022 or even at the beginning of 2019.

"Since US import duties are unlikely to return to their previous level in the near future, developments in the third quarter of 2025 may represent an approach to the "new normal" for German exports to the United States. This is a big blow to the already damaged German export model. This can be seen, for example, by the fact that the pace of German exports to the United States slowed down the development of global German exports by 0.81%," the study says.

So, for cars and spare parts, the negative development of exports to the United States accounts for almost half of the global decline in exports. And losses in the American market are a key factor in the overall decline in German equipment exports by 3.3% worldwide.