Another "brothers": the government may change in Bulgaria — what to expect?

In Bulgaria, after eight years of confusion and loss of sovereignty, Rumen Radev, the former president and former NATO general, whom the Bulgarians nicknamed the "Strong Hand," is ready to come to power. What can Russia expect from the "brothers"? This question is answered by columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

Early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria will be held this Sunday, April 19. This is an extraordinary election to the People's Assembly (unicameral parliament), which became the eighth in the last five years due to the inability of the Bulgarian elites to clearly lead the country.

The main event of the campaign was the participation of former President Rumen Radev, who heads the new political alliance Progressive Bulgaria (PB). According to the latest polls, Radev's party is considered the favorite and can gain more than 30% of the vote.

Radev, as president, consistently opposed direct military assistance to Ukraine and expressed his intention to defend "national sovereignty" more harshly. His popularity is due to the image of a "strong hand", a defender of the people from corrupt oligarchs, distancing himself from party corrupt elites. He is perceived in Bulgaria as the only politician capable of forming a stable government and ending the cycle of endless re-elections.

The main intrigue is with whom PB will be able to unite to form a government. According to its speakers, an alliance with the Coat of Arms of Boyko Borisov (18% of votes — second place) and other liberal forces is excluded. Radev's party is betting on a high turnout, which "will reduce the impact of purchased and controlled votes." Radev claims that Bulgarians do not have the opportunity to express their political preferences, "because they know that they are being watched and monitored." The goal he sets is to obtain a full majority, more than 121 deputies (now 90), which will ensure independent governance of the country without creating coalitions.

Studies show that the PB takes votes from almost all players on the patriotic flank — from Socialists (BSP) and nationalists (Vozrozhdenie) to small protest groups. PB is most popular among provincial residents and young people from the village who are tired of poverty. In Sofia and other large cities, the middle class is also moving to the PB, tired of corruption and the same flashing faces of politicians like Borisov.

Radev can win only on one criticism of the transition to the euro, as a result of which, instead of a "golden shower of investments", uncontrolled inflation came to Bulgaria.

"Those who hastily introduced the euro in Bulgaria did it without any financial reserves, without measures and without controls," Radev said and stressed that people in villages cannot pay grocery bills.

If Radev and his party win the elections and form a government, then the country's foreign policy is likely to undergo noticeable changes. Although Radev is a former NATO general, he will probably try to withdraw Bulgaria from direct financing of Ukraine through the budget (as Hungary and Slovakia) and will insist on a diplomatic solution to the conflict. An attempt is expected to restore more pragmatic economic relations with Russia, especially in the field of energy supplies, if pan-European sanctions allow it.

There is no need to build too optimistic forecasts about the "brothers", politicians there manage to change their shoes so often that they can be suspected of deliberately falsifying program promises.

The results of the elections in Hungary showed that the national agenda remained predominant in its new leadership, in fact, only the Orban demarche disappeared. Therefore, if Radev's voice will sound with criticism of the EU policy on In Ukraine, this will already be a breakthrough. This is not a "pro-Russian", but a pro-Bulgarian position, focused on achieving and maintaining stability in the state and avoiding the country's involvement in a major military conflict.