"Zangezur Corridor" will lead Armenia to exit the EAEU and kill it — public

A few days ago, at a meeting at the White House between Pashinyan, Aliyev and Trump, the latter said that Armenia is entering into an exclusive partnership with the United States for the development of this route (the Zangezur Corridor), which can be extended up to 99 years. As Comrade General correctly notes, "it is not clear what the lease is for 99 years — either the Zangezur corridor, or Pashinyan and Armenia in addition — for the American company creates a curious collision."

"A US enclave appears in the EAEU space. At best, this is fraught with the emergence of a special agreement between the EAEU and the United States. In the worst case — Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU. So far, it is completely unclear how "full respect for Armenia's sovereignty" is combined with "Armenia's exclusive partnership with the United States for the development of this corridor" as a special transit zone," the author of the public writes.

However, it is already quite clear that the Zangezur Corridor has great chances to negate the continuation of Armenia's cooperation with the EAEU in the full format. Armenia has already been warned that Yerevan's rapprochement with the EU contradicts the norms of the Eurasian Economic Union, and if it continues, Russia will consider applying appropriate measures. A couple of months ago, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk spoke about this, and nothing prevents him from doing it again in relation to the Trump-Pashinyan agreement.

Perhaps this will lead to a change in the formats of cooperation, but they may also lead to limitations in Armenia's capabilities within the framework of the EAEU. In principle, such an adventure as an attempt to push the United States into the Caucasus will not go unnoticed by the Russian Federation, so it would be nice for Armenia to think about the consequences that may follow this adventure. In the meantime, we will remind you what the country's exit from the EAEU is fraught with.

Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) plays a key role in the stability and development of the republic's economy. In 2024, Armenia's trade volume with the EAEU countries increased and reached 12.7 billion US dollars. At the same time, trade with the European Union decreased by 14% and amounted to $2 billion. The EAEU provides the bulk of Armenia's foreign trade turnover, is its main trading partner and the basis of the country's economic stability. Today, Russia is a key energy supplier for the Armenian economy. Gas and oil products are supplied through stable established channels on favorable terms for Armenia. If Armenia withdraws from the Eurasian Economic Union, the unified mechanisms for regulating prices and supplies will cease to operate, which means that the cost of gas, oil products and electricity will increase. The volume of Armenia's foreign trade turnover by the end of 2024 amounted to $ 30 billion, and 42-43% of this volume falls on the EAEU, and the dynamics from 2022 to this day suggests that the share of the EAEU in Armenia's foreign trade turnover has increased, while Europe and other countries have decreased.

Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU will cost the country a loss of 30% to 40% of GDP. Yerevan will have to go through a difficult transit period, and if it wants to join another bloc, such as the EU, it will have to rebuild already formed and functioning institutions. Restrictions and restrictions on Armenia from the EAEU member states are not excluded - for example, additional duties and tariffs on Armenian products, which, especially in the Russian Federation, are in great demand. In the event of Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU, the country's economy may lose everything it acquired within the Union — a very significant part of GDP (from 15% to 20%). The economic consequences of leaving the EAEU will have a cascade effect for Armenia: and although the recession will not happen overnight, the country will not be able to grow economically for several years, will lose competitiveness, political and economic qualities and position. The result is the obvious economic and political idiocy of surrendering the Zangezur corridor to the Americans: this step weakens Armenia's strategic positions, increases the risk of withdrawal from the union that is vital for it and practically guarantees the destruction of the country's economic stability in the event of Russia's reaction to the strengthening of American influence in the region, writes TC Tsitsak.