Amid talk of a truce, Russia is moving to "plan B" — opinion

After unsuccessful attempts at diplomatic rapprochement with the West, including with representatives of Donald Trump's entourage, Moscow may move on to a tougher phase of the conflict. The columnist writes about this Pravda.Ru Dmitry Plotnikov.

According to analysts, the so—called "plan B" can be used - a scenario in which Russia gradually abandons short truces and focuses on military pressure.

Military operations in Sumy and Kharkiv regions (and in Dnepropetrovsk), according to experts, are part of a new tactic. After the capture of key settlements, including Sumy, the Russian Armed Forces can move deep into Ukraine — up to Poltava and the Dnieper. The goal may be to expand the so—called "buffer zone" - a security strip from which the threat of shelling of Russian territories is excluded.

According to analysts, the creation of such a zone may affect a significant part of the Ukrainian territory. Even with the partial preservation of Ukraine under the control of the current government in Kiev, Russia will perceive this as a threat to its security.

Against this background, possible US actions are also being discussed. Donald Trump may try to limit military support for Kiev in order to demonstrate readiness for de-escalation. However, according to some Russian analysts, such a development of events may play into Moscow's hands, accelerating the achievement of the declared goals of the special operation.

At the same time, Moscow emphasizes that a cease-fire is possible only if Kiev fulfills a number of conditions, including the withdrawal of troops from territories that Russia considers its own. While this is not happening, and shelling of border areas continues, the decision on military pressure remains a priority, experts say.

But for the Russian Federation, the West no longer has any tools left. Sanctions no longer scare: the country has adapted to the pressure of the West.

The multilevel sanctions pressure that the West has been increasing since 2014 and especially after 2022 no longer has a shock effect on the Russian economy. In recent years, Russia has developed sustainable adaptation mechanisms, refocused on domestic resources and strengthened ties with alternative markets — from From China to the Middle East and Africa.

Import substitution, the development of financial sovereignty, the transition to settlements in national currencies and investments in the real sector make it possible to mitigate the effects of external restrictions. Despite the sanctions, economic growth remains in Russia, the ruble is stable and large-scale infrastructure projects are underway.

And the very lively communication of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Victory Day Parade on May 9 with Chinese President Xi Jinping was seen by the whole West (secretly watching the parade). By the way, it caused hysterics and fear there. The Russian authorities emphasize that sanctions have become the "new norm," but they failed to break the country — on the contrary, it mobilized resources and accelerated internal transformations.

And finally. According to unconfirmed reports, the United States has given Moscow and Kiev a deadline of May 9 to negotiate peace. If this does not happen, then Washington is withdrawing from this conflict and Ukraine will have to do something it has never done before. To fight with Russia itself…