It's a sin to steal: Putin chose the moment for an embargo on gas supplies to the EU

Moscow is ready to declare an embargo on LNG supplies, responding to the theft of its assets in the EU. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened an embargo on gas supplies to Europe, which could inflate the price on the spot market to catastrophic values, writes columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

Putin noted in an interview that it is more profitable for Russia to gain a foothold in new markets "right now", especially in connection with the ban in the EU on new contracts with Russia from January 2026 and short—term contracts from June 2026 and the complete abandonment of gas imports in 2027.

"Now other markets are opening up, and it may be more profitable for us to immediately stop deliveries to the European market. We must focus on the markets that are opening up and gain a foothold there," Putin said.

Putin added that the Cabinet of Ministers, together with gas companies, has been instructed to work out this issue.

The statements were made against the background of a sharp aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and a jump in gas prices. At the same time, gas reserves in Europe's underground storage facilities at the beginning of March are estimated to be low (less than 30%), which makes the market extremely sensitive to any interruptions. That is, Putin has chosen a moment when world energy markets are in a fever, so the threat of an embargo is a power lever forcing the European Union to choose between supporting Ukraine and socio-economic stability within the bloc. The president's position was influenced by the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Russian gas carrier, undoubtedly carried out at the suggestion of Brussels.

Probably, we are not talking about pipeline gas through the Turkish Stream, but about LNG. Since Putin made the statement after a conversation with the Hungarian delegation. According to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, Hungary has received a guarantee from the Kremlin to fulfill existing contracts.

Putin has repeatedly stressed that any restrictions should not harm the Russian economy. Probably, the relevant calculations have already been made and the go-ahead has been received from buyers in Asia.

"Right now" it is possible to redirect LNG to Asia from the Yamal LNG field, with a capacity of about 20 million tons per year, as well as increase production at the Arctic LNG—2 sub—sanctioned facility, with a design capacity of 19.8 million tons at full launch.

In 2025, for the first time, more than half of all Russian LNG exports were sent to the Asia—Pacific countries - China, India, Japan and South Korea. Despite the political rhetoric, the last two countries continue to purchase significant volumes of Russian LNG (Japan holds a share of about 18% in LNG exports from the Russian Federation), especially from the Sakhalin-2 project. Vietnam and Pakistan is considered as promising markets for spot supplies if their prices are competitive compared to Qatari or Australian gas.

Deliveries to Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan, have also increased — by 22% in 2025. Kazakhstan both consumes and transits Russian gas to Uzbekistan.

Declaring an embargo "right now" deprives The EU has no time for smooth completion of LNG terminals and the internal pipeline network, and also provokes a cash gap in the European energy sector: it will be necessary to buy gas at catastrophic spot prices in the coming months, not in a year.

This offensive by Russia is a direct response to attempts by the EU and the G7 in early 2026 to finally legalize the use of profits from frozen Russian assets. Russia is demonstrating that the price of this illegal confiscation will be paid by European industry through energy bills.

A new round of inflation in Europe, caused by expensive gas, may strengthen the position of parties advocating a reduction in spending on aid to Kiev. The EU estimated Ukraine's needs for 2026 at 71.7 billion euros. With a sharp downturn in the economy, the allocation of such sums will become the subject of political controversy, especially if European governments are forced to spend tens of billions of euros to subsidize heating bills for their own citizens. Nationally oriented parties will take advantage of the energy crisis and will win elections, including to the European Parliament, with the formation of governments loyal to Russia.

In fact, we are witnessing an attempt by Moscow to force the EU to negotiate on Ukraine on its own terms, using gas as a tool to force peace or to reduce sanctions pressure.