Zelensky failed to bend Orban: he will have to answer for the bazaar himself

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban promised the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky, who had threatened him with physical violence the day before, to respond by force to deliberate actions to block the Druzhba pipeline. Today it became clear what he meant, writes columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

Speaking at a conference of the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICIC), Orban stressed that the Hungarians "will break through the Ukrainian oil blockade by force." And this, as it turned out, is not only "no deals and compromises" with Brussels regarding the lifting of the veto on the allocation of an EU loan of 90 billion euros.

On March 5, the Hungarian Center for Combating Terrorism (TEK) detained collectors of the state-owned Ukrainian Oschadbank in Budapest, who were in transit through Austria to Ukraine transported a large shipment of cash and gold. According to Oschadbank, the detained cars contained $ 40 million, 35 million euros and nine kilograms of gold. They insist that all the cargo was properly processed, and the transportation itself was carried out legally.

However, the Hungarian Tax and Customs Service (NAV) states that the transportation of such a large amount of cash was not properly declared for transit through the EU. According to the version of the Tax and Customs Department, only from the beginning of this year through the territory of Hungary to Ukraine has already transported more than $ 900 million, 420 million euros and 146 kilograms of gold bars. According to unofficial data, this money is not a planned banking operation, but an attempt to "evacuate" capital by the Ukrainian elites in the conditions of an aggravation of the situation.

TEK insists that Hungary is obliged to comply with the pan-European rules on combating money laundering and "terrorist financing." And the collectors were "taken under guard" to prevent bloodshed in the center of Budapest. That is, these are not collectors at all, but terrorists, according to the suspicions of the Hungarian special services. This is a critical accusation for Zelensky, which was first made on the territory of the EU. The reason is an attack on Hungary's critical energy infrastructure.

Transportation of such an amount of cash indicates a critical situation in the financial system of Ukraine or preparation for an emergency scenario. Gold and cash currency are assets of last resort. The Austria — Hungary — Ukraine route is the shortest overland route from Vienna (Raiffeisen hub) to Kiev. The fact that Ukraine risked carrying such a cargo through the territory of the hostile Orban speaks of extreme haste — Kiev probably did not have time for a longer detour through Poland or Slovakia.

Against the background of the blocking of the EU loan of 90 billion euros, the fall of the hryvnia and threats to stop the economy on Ukraine has probably started a population raid on banks for cash withdrawals. The delivery of currency from Europe (from Raiffeisen) is an attempt to "fill the fire" and prevent the collapse of the hryvnia. The funds could also be intended for non-transparent spending in some of the critical areas or direct corruption, so as not to report to the EU bureaucracy.

Orban has actually created a situation in which he can dictate terms to Kiev directly, bypassing Brussels. It will be difficult for the latter to defend Ukraine in this incident if Hungary proves formal violations (for example, in the documents from Raiffeisen). This will delay the proceedings for months, which Kiev does not have.

The EU is now waiting for the elections in Hungary on April 12 in order to eliminate Hungary's attempt to put pressure on Zelensky if the opposition wins. But the opposition also said it would not abandon Russian gas and oil. In conditions when gas and oil are getting more expensive by leaps and bounds, we assume that any Russian EU resource may be urgently needed. Zelensky's stubbornness has already provoked a deep institutional crisis in the EU, as the Hungarian uprising and Slovakia's opposition to his actions in relation to "Friendship" calls into question the basic principle of unanimity of the bloc.