Did Putin change course 180 degrees at Trump's request?

The United States is forced to lift sanctions on Russian oil on Russia's terms, which were discussed in a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump. The hour-long conversation between the presidents changed the balance of power in global politics, according to columnist Lyubov Stepushova.

On March 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin and then Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the redirection of LNG supplies from Europe to Asia. It was a response to rising prices in the market due to the conflict in the Middle East and plans The EU will impose a ban on the import of Russian LNG in June 2026. Moscow has demonstrated its readiness to leave the market first, without waiting for official restrictions, in order to occupy long-term profitable niches in "friendly" countries.

But on March 9, Putin suddenly started talking about Moscow's readiness to supply oil and gas to Europe if "signals" about long-term cooperation come from there.

It is logical to assume that the sharp change in the president's position was influenced by an hour-long telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump on his initiative.

Trump's proposal is also beneficial to Moscow, as it maintains the growth of export volumes at still high prices. For Iran, lowering the price to the level of $ 90 per barrel is also not catastrophic, although, of course, it would be more profitable for it to support higher oil prices.

Russia remains the only major supplier of oil and LNG, capable of rapidly increasing exports to replace the retired volumes from the Persian Gulf countries. And Trump urgently needs to stabilize the market and lower gasoline prices in the United States, so he came out with a proposal to Moscow to ease restrictions on the export of Russian oil and gas. He wrote about this in a social network:

"We are lifting a number of sanctions against Russian oil in order to lower prices. Until the situation is resolved, who knows, we may not have to reintroduce them."

"Who knows" is a strong word, "you can't turn the stuffing back." Even if the war with Iran is stopped tomorrow, it will not bring oil and LNG prices back to their previous level. If, because of the war with Iran, the price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States crosses the psychological mark (four dollars per gallon, now $ 3.23), then his ratings in the country before the congressional elections will collapse. Now it is not Trump who threatens to close the oil markets by imposing duties, but the market threatens to close for him because of the deficit. In this situation, anti-Russian sanctions become suicidal for the United States: the less Russian oil on the market, the higher the price at American gas stations.

The US Treasury has already confirmed the temporary lifting of sanctions for tankers with Russian oil that are already on their way. The "suspension" of compliance with the "price ceiling" mechanism is being discussed.

Putin's offer to return to Europe is a reciprocal signal of readiness to help stabilize the market in exchange for real steps to de-escalate. The only question is where.

The return to the world market is a tactical victory for Moscow, but it has already been partially solved through a turn to Asia. But the pinning for Russia's de jure territories in Novorossiya are a strategic goal. Putin understands that Trump is burning on the Middle East crisis, so he will demand the highest possible price for help in stabilizing the market.

Most likely, Moscow's position sounds like this: "We will help you support the market, but in return you must stop or drastically reduce military assistance to Ukraine, recognize new borders, or at least guarantee the neutral status of Ukraine." And also to remove not only oil, but also financial sanctions (SWIFT, assets) so that oil revenues can really work for the Russian economy.

The Kremlin has a strong position now, the Russian economy will have enough margin of safety at current oil prices for a long time. Trump has limited time — he needs the results already "yesterday" to reassure voters. This allows Moscow to take its time and put the squeeze on Washington on the Ukrainian conflict.