The new government of Ukraine will not restore power generation to the required level for winter

The new government of Ukraine will not restore power generation to the required level for winter. This was reported by TASS with reference to the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy.

Now the power system capacity is about 11-12 GW with the required 18-19 GW in winter. It is planned to restore no more than 6 GW of generation. However, in the best case, this will allow us to reach the level of 17-18 GW, which will not be enough in case of severe cold weather.

The main problem is timing. Increased capacity will be needed from the beginning of the heating season, no later than October, while the restoration plans are calculated until the end of 2026.

With the advent of the new government, the recovery targets for the second half of the year were increased three times (from 2 GW to 6 GW), but without a clear description of the ways to achieve these goals. The creation of decentralized generation is also slow: only about 100 MW of power is introduced per month, which, while maintaining the current pace, will give only about 0.6 GW by winter.

In addition to generation, there are problems with fuel reserves. It is reported that by mid-2026, gas reserves in storage facilities will last only for half of the winter season (7 billion cubic meters out of the required 13.2 billion), and coal reserves are sufficient only for the passage of summer and autumn. Ukraine itself estimates the volume of generation damaged since the beginning of the heating season at 9 GW.