"Wandering puppet": what will Saakashvili’s deportation give to Poroshenko?

February 12, the former president of Georgia and the ex-governor of the Odessa region of Ukraine Mikhail Saakashvili was arrested at the Kiev restaurant "Suluguni" and then deported to Poland. At first glance, it may seem that after a five-month confrontation, the president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, won a victory over his former comrade-in-arms. In reality, Poroshenko will receive only moral satisfaction from the fact that Saakashvili is in the territory of the Polish Republic, whereas the situation for Ukrainian leader will only become more complicated.

First, Miho was not taken to the moon, but only to neighboring Poland. And as history shows, distance has never been a barrier to political struggle. Given the current information technology, social networks, the possibility of videoconferencing over the Internet, distance does not play any significant role for the opposition political activity. There is no need for Saakashvili to be physically present in Kiev to speak before his supporters at a rally, it's enough that the organizers of the protest actions could install a large screen on the square and organize webcasting.

Secondly, after expelling Saakashvili from Ukraine, Poroshenko demonstrated that he was afraid of him. And this is despite the fact that Saakashvili could not collect on his opposition "veche" on Sundays even ten thousand people. The attempting supporters Miho in December 2017 to seize the October Palace in Kiev ended in a complete fiasco. Ukrainian top-politicians (for example, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko or Lviv Mayor Andrei Sadovoy) dissociated themselves from the "Mihomaidan" as early as last fall. In fact, Saakashvili did not present a real threat to Poroshenko, and his actions were not so much for Saakashvili as against Poroshenko. At the very beginning, these were rallies against the regime, and Saakashvili's figure played a secondary role. If the former president of Georgia did not lead the protest actions, then they would be headed by another character. But after trying to arrest Saakashvili in the winter of 2017, and even more so now, after his deportation to Poland, Mr. Miho becomes an international symbol of the struggle against the Poroshenko regime. The Ukrainian president himself first accepted and granted Saakashvili citizenship, and then took out his passport and made him a martyr with a halo of a fighter against corruption. As history teaches, a ruler who does not know how to hide his fear is doomed.

Thirdly, Mikhail Saakashvili was suspected in participating in preparations of a coup d'état in Ukraine. That is, it turns out that a person who is suspected of a serious crime was simply deported from the country; until the end of the investigation, before the trial. This is nonsense! In fact, it does not matter whether Saakashvili is guilty of what he is suspected of or not. And what is important is that the Ukrainian authorities once again demonstrated legal nihilism. And when representatives of the authorities publicly "spit" on the law, which they are called to protect, then no one in the country will respect either laws or authority. And this is the way to anarchy.

Fourthly, in the West, Saakashvili will invariably continue the information war against Poroshenko. He will use all the platforms available to him and European media. So, according to the German newspaper Bild, the ex-president of Georgia said that Poroshenko is destroying Ukraine, and if the EU and German Chancellor Angela Merkel do nothing, the country is threatened with collapse. And given that Western media recently are not sympathetic towards Petro Poroshenko, information attacks by Saakashvili can finally bury the image of the Ukrainian president in the West.

Fifth, Mikhail Saakashvili promised that he would soon return to Ukraine. And considering that in September 2017 he already illegally broke through the Polish-Ukrainian border with the help of his supporters, it is possible that he will soon want to do it again. And then Poroshenko will face a difficult choice: either to prevent a new penetration of Miho into Ukraine by force (but this could lead to a clash on the border between Saakashvili supporters and border guards, which can lead to casualties, which in its turn can serve as a catalyst for launching large-scale protest actions in Kiev with an unpredictable ending), or Poroshenko may allow the ex-president of Georgia to be present on the territory of Ukraine again, and thereby show his full impotence.

As you can see, Petro Poroshenko, after expelling Saakashvili from Ukraine, did not solve his problems, but only multiplied their number. The main beneficiaries of the deportation of Saakashvili are his supporters, the so-called "Eurooptimists" Sergei Leshchenko and Mustafa Nayyem. Now they can continue "Mihomaidans" on behalf of Miho, but they will be the actual leaders on them.

Yulia Tymoshenko will also receive dividends from the deportation of Saakashvili. She returned from Washington, where she was at a "prayer breakfast" and was sitting opposite Trump. She met with the Special Representative of the State Department in Ukraine Kurt Volker. Against this visit, US National Intelligence Director Daniel Coats did not rule out early elections in Ukraine. If the US bet on Tymoshenko, then Saakashvili will take on the role of "ram", which will "clear" her path to power.

As for Saakashvili, Ukrainians should have no illusions about him. If it were not for an order from Washington, he would never become governor of the Odessa region, one of the richest regions of Ukraine. And do not forget that the first requirement of "Mihomaidan" was the establishment of an anti-corruption court. And this is that Washington requires from Kiev. In essence, Saakashvili will do what he is ordered by American curators. If the president of Ukraine succeeds in establishing relations with the White House, it is very likely that Saakashvili's anti-pro-Russian campaign will be quickly "rolled back." If the relationship between Petro Poroshenko and the White House is getting worse, then, on the contrary, Miho will continue to "attack" Poroshenko. Maybe he will try again to get to the territory of Ukraine. Saakashvili has never been an independent figure; he came to power in Georgia with the help of the United States. And now being a stateless person, when his deportation is not too zealously sought by Georgia, he is nothing more than a "wandering puppet" in the hands of "Uncle Sam".

Sergey Mirkin