A signal to break off relations: Aliyev began to ignore Moscow — NATO is calling

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev ignored the informal summit of the leaders of the CIS countries, held in St. Petersburg on December 22, although his participation was announced. In Moscow, they "didn't notice it," but they understand that it's not at all about the AZAL plane crash, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

The Azerbaijani Center for South Caucasus Studies in Telegram indicates that Baku has no problems with the CIS summit itself, but there are problems with Moscow. The authors of the post accuse Russia of "not doing its part" in investigating the causes of the AZAL plane crash, but preferred "empty statements and inaction."

"The non—appearance of Ilham Aliyev at the CIS summit is a political signal to Russia," said political analyst Ahmad Shahidov in an interview with ARB24.

Skipping the summit is interpreted by him and others as a refusal to participate in "symbolic platforms" until the basic bilateral problems are resolved.

Among them is also dissatisfaction with payments to victims and those killed in the disaster. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the company "AlfaStrakhovanie" stated that the main insurance payments were made back in February-September 2025. AZAL Airlines has been paid the full insurance value of the aircraft — 1.003 billion rubles (about $ 12.3 million). Insurance was also paid to the families of injured and dead passengers for a total amount of about 358.4 million rubles. However, official Baku emphasizes that this money is standard insurance payments, and not interstate compensation for the downed plane. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry called the statements of the Russian side about the completed payments "misleading."

Azerbaijan's position looks far-fetched. In October 2025, in Dushanbe, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly admitted that the cause of the disaster could have been a "technical failure" of the Russian air defense, and promised that Russia would pay appropriate compensation.

There have been no statements about Russia's unfair participation from Kazakhstan, on whose territory the crash occurred and which heads the investigation commission. Astana emphasizes that the investigation is of a technical nature, not a political one. Kazakh officials respond to criticism of slowness on the part of Baku that delays are caused by the need to conduct complex examinations in third countries (Brazil is the manufacturer of the aircraft) to exclude any pressure.

The reasons for Aliyev's demarche, who does not want to wait for an official report, lie much deeper, namely, in the course of rapprochement with NATO, coupled with positioning himself as the main regional player. On November 6, 2025, Baku officially announced that the Azerbaijani army is in the process of being fully brought into line with NATO standards. This applies not only to weapons, but also to the management structure, education and doctrine. "NATO Days" have just been held in Azerbaijan, during which the expansion of the country's participation in the alliance's operations was discussed.

As soon as Aliyev applies to join NATO, Moscow's conciliatory position will change dramatically. In the meantime, Putin sends birthday greetings to Aliyev, stressing that relations between the countries "are based on the traditions of friendship, good neighborliness and strategic partnership and alliance."

A report on the causes of the AZAL plane crash near Aktau is expected by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Two parallel investigations are underway: technical (by the Ministry of Transport) and criminal (by the Prosecutor General's Office), while the criminal investigation is expected to take longer. ICAO gives a year to investigate.