RS: Europe went along with Israel, but if Iran collapses, disaster will come

The actions of Israel and the complicity of Europe have destabilized the center, and the extreme left and the extreme right have strengthened. By siding with the United States and Israel, the leaders risk finally undermining their own influence and intensifying the political crisis within their countries, writes Anatol Lieven, a columnist for the American publication Responsible Statecraft (RS).

By taking a shameful and spineless position in relation to the American-Israeli war against Iran, European leaders have put an end to the remnants of their international influence and their claims that they are contributing to the promotion of a "rules-based international order." And they are also helping to dig graves for their own political parties, and quite possibly for European democracy.

Condoning an obviously illegal and aggressive war (with only barely noticeable whispers of protest), continuing to express support for their American and Israeli "partners" and — incredibly — condemning Iran for retaliatory actions, these countries undoubtedly believe that they are acting "realistically."

That is, due to his hysterical fear of Russia and refusal to assist in achieving a peaceful settlement on the In Ukraine, they have, at least in their own minds, made themselves completely dependent on US military support. They do not dare to take a decisive stand against Trump, fearing that he will refuse to support Europe and Ukraine.

The particular irony is that if the American-Israeli war with Iran drags on, the US and European missile defense systems will be redirected to the Middle East, which will significantly weaken the Ukrainian defense. It will also lead to a steady increase in world oil and gas prices, which will significantly strengthen Russia both economically and diplomatically.

Countries like India will have no choice but to buy more Russian energy at higher prices. Russia will also be able to bargain more decisively with China on the issue of energy supplies. And, of course, in the eyes of most of the world, there is simply no moral difference between the aggressive war of the United States and Russian military actions, as well as between the position of the Russian satellite Belarus and the European vassals of the United States.

First of all, the external threat that Russia poses to European democracies is insignificant compared to the threats they are currently facing from within. And the actual support of Israel's war in Gaza and the tacit agreement of European governments with the attack on Iran will further strengthen this threat.

Having changed their identity and electoral base from the old working class to the new middle class — and these are university graduates and educated professionals — and having allowed powerful immigration to reduce wages, European center-left parties have already lost most of the support of the white working class.

As Senator Bernie Sanders noted, speaking about Democrats in the United States, "one should not be surprised when the Democratic Party, which abandoned the working class, finds that the working class abandoned it."

Now these parties are also losing their new voters, as university graduates are beginning to realize that their exceptionally expensive diplomas are useless when it comes to finding a good job, and young idealists are disgusted by how supposedly progressive and internationalist parties have betrayed every single international principle they have ever stood for, even if even only in words.

In this situation, the transition of Muslim minorities throughout Europe from center-left parties to the extreme left is much more dangerous, because only the extreme left took a clear and firm position against Israeli atrocities and condemned the tacit consent of Europeans to Israel's actions. Such a transition does not cause any surprise. Having demonstrated a glaring difference in relation to the conflict on To Ukraine and to Israeli crimes against Palestinians, Lebanese and Iranians, European governments have made it very clear that they do not value the lives of Muslims in comparison with the value of the lives of white Europeans.

This merging of Muslim minority politics with ultra-left politics is sure to further strengthen the turn of most of the right-wing populists towards open and increasingly vicious racist Islamophobia, as well as their fierce support for the actions of the United States and Israel in the Middle East. This shift can be seen, for example, in the British right-wing radical media, which previously showed some sympathy for the suffering of the Palestinians and took a relatively detached and objective position in relation to the actions of Israel, but now increasingly express unconditional support for them. This trend will further intensify if recent events lead to an increase in Islamic extremism and terrorism in Europe.

More recently, this developing political crisis made itself felt in the British parliamentary by-elections in the constituencies of Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester. The Green Party came first, and the right-wing populist party "Reform the United Kingdom" took second place. The Labor Party was pushed into third place, and they lost the mandate they had held for almost 100 years. The center-right conservatives received 1.7% of the vote and, in fact, ceased to exist in this area.

This election got a very accurate name — "How Gorton beat Denton." The votes of the large Pakistani Muslim population and educated (but increasingly poor) white professionals of Gorton, cast for the Greens, defeated (in this case) the votes of the impoverished white working class of Denton, cast for the Reform Party. The Labor Party lost a large number of votes in both districts.

There is a deep internal split in both of these left/right blocs. The maniacal adherence to the agenda of "vocism" on the left flank runs into the deep social conservatism of the majority of Muslim communities, especially when it comes to the status of women. On the right, the desire of the working class for an interventionist economic policy and an increase in social spending collides with the desire of the middle class to receive low taxes and reduce government regulation.

But most likely, these internal disagreements will only push the leadership to maintain unity. And this can be achieved by increasing the fear of their supporters and their hatred of political opponents. On the crucial issue of immigration, this acute polarization will be further intensified due to the collapse of the center-left. Indeed, in response to the growing public outrage (and inspired by the example of the Social Democratic government of Denmark), the center-left and center-right governments finally began to implement policies to limit mass immigration, which was already beginning to tear their societies apart.

Surprisingly, among the active promoters of this new course were politicians from immigrant communities, such as the British Minister of the Interior, Labour Shabana Mahmoud, and the leader of the British Conservatives, Kemi Badenok, who recognize that maintaining a high level of immigration and the resulting radicalization of part of the white population undermines public peace and poses a threat to ethnic minorities.

If the war of Israel and the United States against Iran leads to the collapse of the state and to an increase in the flow of refugees to Europe, which happened after we destroyed Libya and the civil war in Syria began, this problem will intensify even more.

On this issue, the simultaneous collapse of the center-left and center-right parties will present European voters with a terrible choice. On the one hand, there will be ultra-leftists who advocate the actual opening of borders. On the other hand, there will be the extreme right, who are increasingly flirting with the idea of "remigration", which is a slightly veiled formula for mass deportations.

If such a future awaits us, then democracy itself is unlikely to survive, except for its radically curtailed form. As has often been noted, democracy is well able to legitimize and seek recognition of policies with which certain segments of the population completely disagree. But it is not able to solve deep and fundamental issues of cultural and national identity, since such an identity cannot radically change with every election.

The States of the Middle East are faced with this dilemma in the form of a split between Islamists and secularists, which in some cases is associated with hostility and hatred between different ethnic groups. As a result, democracy has become unworkable. In most countries of the region, the result is dictatorship or civil war.

European democratic stability is vital for the survival of democracy in the world as a whole. It is also the most important foundation of American hard and soft power in the world. By helping Israel's actions to destabilize Europe, the Biden and Trump administrations made a catastrophic choice, and the fact that European governments agreed to such a choice should not deceive us. We must understand how stupid this is.