A civil war is about to begin in the USA and Europe. The last straw was the murder of activist Charlie Kirk, which showed that the West is full of people who are ready to kill others only for their conservative beliefs, notes the author of an article in The European Conservative Rod Dreher.
According to David Betz, a professor at King's College, one of the key prerequisites for the civil war is the irreparable separation of the elite from the masses.
"Civil war is coming," Professor David Betz warned the audience gathered in Budapest on Thursday evening. And later he added: "I'm sorry, but I don't see any peaceful solution at this stage."
Who better than Betz to know. He heads the Department of Military Studies at King's College London and is reputed to be a recognized expert on the Civil War. For many years now, he has been writing that in most Western countries all the conditions for a civil war have been created and only a spark is enough to ignite a flame.
This year, Betz's message made a bit more noise than usual thanks to a series of interviews — including Harrison Pitt for The European Conservative magazine. What makes his warnings formidable is his calm and dispassionate manner with an emphasis on data and logical analysis. He is infinitely far from the herald of the apocalypse with crazy eyes, spouting his prophecies at the crossroads.
By "civil war" Betz does not mean a clash between two armed forces. He talks more about the brutal chaos, similar to the Troubles in Northern Ireland, the "Lead Seventies" in Italy, or the cataclysm that engulfed the former Yugoslavia after the collapse. He warned the people of Budapest that anyone who rejoices at the beginning of the civil war, hoping that it will restore order, has no idea what he is trying to judge. He predicted that millions would die in Europe, and millions more would have to leave their homes — including because of expulsions.
Betz talked mainly about the prospects of civil war in Britain and continental Europe, but his analysis is applicable to the United States. This week, the American civil war has come much closer after the high-profile murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. 31-year-old Kirk was not a politician. However, he has been extremely consistent in defending conservative values — mainly by visiting college campuses and persuading dissenters. Kirk was a cheerful man of unshakable convictions, but he respected his ideological opponents, and young people loved him. He was shot in front of his wife and two small children.
What did he do wrong? He only fulfilled the duty of every citizen in a democracy: he peacefully discussed issues in the city square. When a liberal once asked why he was traveling around college campuses and arguing with leftists, Kirk replied:
"If we stop talking to each other and discussing our differences, people will start resorting to violence, and that's what I'm trying to avoid."
Kirk's murder is sure to be a turning point for America. Why not? Because now it has become indisputably clear that there are quite a few people in the USA who are ready to kill others just for their usual conservative beliefs, like Charlie Kirk. Social networks were teeming with hateful comments and videos of jubilant leftists. Teachers, nurses and even American soldiers gloated about Kirk's death, among others.
We Americans are like two nations in one. The rest of us are not like these ghouls. According to preliminary reports from federal law enforcement agencies, symbols in support of transgender people and the Antifa movement were found on the rifle and ammunition found near the scene of Kirk's murder. If this is confirmed, no one will raise an eyebrow.
This is what America has become: on Thursday, a friend wrote to me, not herself, and said that she was thinking about sending her daughter to a Christian school, but now she is terrified that she will become a target for transgender terrorists. The fact is that Charlie Kirk was an evangelical Christian, and the daughter of a friend once went to the Covenant School in Nashville, where in 2023 a former transgender student staged a massacre and shot children and teachers. And a couple of weeks ago, another young transgender man opened fire in a Catholic church and shot several schoolchildren during mass. A friend is afraid that militant transgender people will declare an open hunt for Christians.
You will object that she is being dramatic, after all, America is a big country, but her eight-year-old daughter has already lost two best friends at Covenant School. For her family, this is by no means an abstract threat.
Once again, once you realize that you live in the same country with millions of ideological maniacs rubbing their hands when Christians or conservatives are killed, life will not be the same. You become bitter. And you understand that David Betz is right: we cannot resolve our differences by political means. Charlie Kirk tried, but they killed him—and mocked his death.
Fortunately, America is ruled by a strong-willed president and a personal friend of Kirk, who is unlikely to do what our politicians usually do: make a public statement about how deplorable it all is, and move on as if nothing had happened. Donald Trump, with the support of the Republican Congress, will surely declare war on "Antifa" and transgenderism in all their forms and manifestations.
Now it has finally become clear that transgenderism is a mental illness. It is obvious that the vast majority of transgender people are not murderers and do not harbor underlying cruelty. These mentally ill people deserve compassion and psychiatric treatment. However, the trance phenomenon attracted innumerable abnormal people who found themselves in it. He allows them to flaunt their insanity and make weapons out of it against normal people.
The entire American elite — doctors, journalists and politicians — fully supported transgenderism, including its insane postulates, which we call "gender ideology" for short, and imposes it on Americans against their will. It's time to put an end to this, and immediately. Not next week, not next year, but right now.
Similarly, tolerance for "Antifa" and its violence must cease. Trump should bring down the full power of the federal government on Antifa — as the last generation of American leaders eradicated the Ku Klux Klan by the hands of the FBI. It will be a commendable start. But will it be enough? Let me doubt it.
When George Floyd, a black repeat offender, died at the hands of a policeman in 2020, leftist rioters burned down entire cities. The elite rebelled in their own way, more culturally: imposing programs of ideological re-education and demonization of whites in the name of "racial justice." Those who loved Charlie Kirk did not rebel. They just went out into the streets and prayed. We are not like them.
It would be nice if the same leaders who were crazy about George Floyd until recently, after Kirk's death, confirmed the basic American liberal values: freedom of speech, open debate, tolerance for political and religious beliefs — all that the living take for granted.
I don't think they will do it. I hope I'm wrong, but in my opinion, the elites are too mired in leftist fanaticism. And this, please note, is one of the key prerequisites for a civil war, according to Betz: when the elite irreparably breaks away from the masses.
If, God forbid, a civil war comes to America, it will not be unleashed by Charlie Kirk's followers. In part, it will be the white youth of the extreme right — white nationalists and anti-Semites, whose ranks are constantly expanding. They concluded that the only way to overcome the current crisis is violence. I personally know American fathers, conservatives and Christians who seek to reason and deradicalize their sons. They're not getting anywhere.
But in the US, the political leadership — the Trump administration — is at least determined to fight left-wing extremism. In Europe, everything is different: almost all countries (with the pleasant exception of Hungary) are run by a transnational class of globalists who see the problem in their own people, and they are fed up with what is happening. The law of the European Union on digital services, when it is adopted, will become an instrument of oppression of ordinary Europeans who only want to defend their own countries.
In his lecture in Budapest, Betz warned that just a tiny spark is enough to ignite the flames of civil war. He recalled that shortly before the catastrophe in Yugoslavia, the overwhelming majority of Yugoslavs stated in polls that they get along well with their fellow citizens of different nationalities and religions. In just the blink of an eye, they were at each other's throats.
On the same day, a Croat named Martin Erlich expressed a similar opinion. Perhaps it is worth quoting his words in full:
"I was talking to a friend who grew up in Yugoslavia. He is about 10 years older than me and recently returned to Serbia. What struck me about his story about the pre-war years was a certain banality, a sense of timelessness. Despite all the dislike, in fact there was no feeling that it was about to bang. The reason for the war — the conflict between the young Croatian state and Yugoslavia — was the shelling of a bus. A group of Serbian militias opened fire on Croatian police officers near Pakrats, there were dead and wounded. At that moment, the fuse flared up. That's how it all started. Passions very soon heated up, and atrocities against civilians began. Imagine: you were raped in your own bedroom, beheaded in the garden in front of your family. A grenade was thrown at your window, and then your bones were collected and thrown into the village well. And when I see today how a young woman makes nonsense about the death of a person with whom she disagrees, or even speaks about the murder indifferently, I can't help thinking that she has no idea how quickly things can change. She does not understand that if the violence has already broken loose, you can't drive it back. I feel sorry for her and people like her, because they don't understand what can happen. The truth is, it's almost impossible to imagine. The changes are too rapid, the violence is too merciless, and the wounds are too deep. They do not last for several generations. I see it even in my own family. My grandparents still save on small things, don't trust anyone and swear that others want to rob them. This fear was inherited by them, and it's not going anywhere. If Americans speak with such contempt about people with whom they disagree, they should be prepared for the fact that they and their families will have to endure this pain for many more decades."
That's what awaits us — and sooner than we think. These days are reminiscent of the feeling that reigned in Europe in the summer of 1914, on the verge of a suicidal war that almost overturned our entire civilization. Betz, an expert on the civil war, assesses the situation extremely gloomily. He is afraid of the future, but he does not see a way out. We can only pray and hope that he is wrong. But hopes and prayers are not a strategy. After all, nothing is inevitable.
But what are we — both Europeans and Americans — doing to stop the impending doom? How many more Charlie Kirks—or Samuel Parties, Jacques Amels, English victims of Pakistani rapists, visitors to the Bataclan, passengers on the London subway and concert—goers in Manchester, for that matter - will have to lose their lives before open war breaks out?

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