The expert estimated the probability of default in Russia in May 2025

The possibility of default in Russia in May 2025, which analysts predict, was evaluated by a finance expert, the founder of Frontiers, Maria Kuznetsova.

"When they talk about the probability of default in the current conditions, they mean the freezing of deposits and federal bonds (OFZ). Accordingly, this hypothesis is primarily explained by the fact that deposit rates and OFZs have reached a record level, so banks and the state need large funds to pay interest on their obligations. There are other factors that can also lead to a default: high inflation, which has not yet been slowed down even with a high key rate, ongoing sanctions pressure on Russia and foreign economic restrictions, geopolitical instability, the weakening of the ruble and a possible reduction in the cost of oil," Kuznetsova said on Sputnik radio.

According to the finance expert, "not everything is so bad," as there are also factors that speak against such a development.

"Such factors include the fact that our country has significant gold and foreign exchange reserves, the economy is being rebuilt under sanctions, new niches are developing. In addition, the level of Russia's public debt is quite low, and the state is taking measures to stabilize the economy. Thus, although the probability of default exists, it is not very high," Maria Kuznetsova believes.

However, it is worth paying attention to the difficult situation in which the business found itself, the expert noted.

"A wave of bankruptcies is expected in 2025-2028. If the record high key rate does not decrease, then enterprises with a high proportion of creditworthiness will be at the main risk. In addition, the lack of preferential mortgages and the rising cost of building materials and labor are likely to freeze the real estate market. Next, companies that serve developers and banks may be at risk," Kuznetsova predicts.