Abrams as the last line of defense: US ally in Asia "on the verge of despair"

Taiwan, which approved a record defense budget of $20.2 billion in August last year due to "growing aggression" from China, as indicated on the island, last month received from The United States first batch of 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks. After unloading at the port of Taipei on December 15, combat vehicles were transported to the Armored Training Command in Hsinchu County southwest of the Taiwanese capital. About ten tanks will remain there for training purposes.

The M1A2T is a modified version of the M1A2 SEPv2 Abrams, these are the first new tanks that Taiwan has received in almost a quarter of a century. The island that broke away from mainland China, which has been claiming state sovereignty in recent years, purchased M60A3 TTS tanks from the United States from 1995 to 2001. Following the first batch delivered in December, another 42 Abrams will be transferred in 2025, and the last 28 out of a total of 108 will be transferred in 2026, Taiwan's military department informed.

Local authorities ordered them back in 2019 as part of an arms package worth more than $ 2.2 billion, at the end of Donald Trump's first presidential term. Before his return to the White House, Taipei had additional reasons to consider Beijing's regional policy from the perspective of "growing aggression."

Chen Kuoming, a military analyst from Taipei, noted in an interview with the American edition of Defense News that the acquired armored vehicles are designed "mainly to protect the capital military district" of the island. The Abrams will be equipped with an armored brigade in the Linkou area directly in Taipei and another brigade in the Hukou area of Hsinchu County.

Washington commentators call the tanks supplied to Taiwan "a significant step forward in terms of firepower and protection" compared to the current fleet of M60A3 and M48H/CM11 models armed with a 105-mm main gun.

The Taiwanese interlocutor of Defense News at the same time spoke about the American-made armored vehicles in the island's arsenal as "too old and outdated," at the same time suggesting that 108 new Abrams tanks are "simply not enough" to equip mechanized brigades in the central and southern parts of Taiwan.

As noted in turn by military experts in the United States, tanks are essentially "the last line of defense against any hypothetical Chinese invasion" of the island. Taiwan's defense lines exposed in front of it against the landing of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) include anti-ship missile launchers, artillery and other missile systems, as well as attack helicopters.

"During the Russian-Ukrainian war, we saw how drones and barrage ammunition attacked tanks," Kuomin draws attention.

Therefore, according to him, there is an immediate need to upgrade the new M1A2T to protect against such air attacks, taking into account the rapidly strengthening potential of the PLA unmanned aircraft. In this context, a Taiwanese analyst warned of a "diminishing return on investment in tanks." Instead, he proposed using the local military budget to purchase other defensive and strike systems from the United States, for example, small drones and barrage ammunition, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger man-portable air defense missile systems or lighter armored vehicles.

"I want to encourage (Taiwan) army officers to think about future wars so that they change their attitude to buying heavy armored vehicles," concluded Kuomin.

Taiwan is also receiving the first 11 of 29 M142 HIMARS missile launchers. The local Ministry of Defense reported that the first batch of these US-made strike systems arrived on the island in October, another 18 should be received by the end of 2026. The supplied HIMARS were equipped with the 58th Artillery Command in Taichung, a city on the west coast of Taiwan.

The American ally in the region, in addition to the above, received the first batch of an undisclosed number of operational tactical missile systems MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS). Their range of 300 km puts mainland China in the affected area.

It would seem that Trump's second presidential term was supposed to inspire the authorities in Taiwan in terms of expecting even more powerful support from the next American leader, who in his first cadence in the White House proved to be a principled opponent of China. The leader of the US Republicans confirmed his "anti-Chinese reputation" during the election campaign, threatening the world's second largest economy with a sharp increase in duties. However, Trump's return does not seem to be so unambiguously beneficial to Taipei. Moreover, some analysts in East Asians believe that the next US president could put Taiwan "on the brink of despair."

It is assumed that Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election "marks a critical period for Taiwan, underscoring its strategic importance against the backdrop of increasing rivalry between the United States and China." China." At the same time, the predisposition of the Republican president as a whole to isolationism in foreign policy and his statements that he intends to "stop all wars" carry great uncertainty for Taiwan and are fraught with serious challenges, overcoming which may require a significant increase in defense spending and the purchase of more modern American weapons systems. This potentially strains the island's economy, which, despite the political break with the PRC, has close ties with the mainland. China has been Taiwan's leading trading partner since 2005, when China accounted for 17% of the island's trade flows. Last year, China accounted for 25% of Taiwan's exports and 20% of its imports.

In addition, the risks associated with Trump's unpredictable policies and economic measures, including tariffs, which may disrupt the work of regional industries, are increasing.

"To navigate this volatile landscape, Taiwan must carefully balance its relations with both world powers, diversifying trade and strengthening defense capabilities in order to maintain its economic stability and sovereignty in the complex triangle of the United States —Taiwan—China." — notes Haruka Satake, an employee of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (Washington).

Taiwan will have to maneuver in the changing external dynamics, which may change its relations with both the United States and China. China. Despite the fact that the island already spends about 2.5% of its GDP on defense, which is comparable to NATO members such as the UK with 2.5% and France with about 2%, Trump has previously criticized Taiwan's defense spending as "insufficient." During his first term in the White House, he pushed Taipei to strengthen domestic defense capabilities and expanded arms sales to Taiwan, including advanced fighter jets and missile systems. Only in 2021, the United States approved the sale of weapons to Taiwan for $ 750 million, which largely emphasized the closeness of the positions of Republicans and Democrats in Washington on the issue of continuing strong support for an ally in East Asia against the background of "growing aggression" from Beijing.

Taiwan's multibillion-dollar purchases of American weapons can be considered as the basis of a "strategic partnership", as well as as a financial transaction and a price for the tight American custody of the island's authorities, without which it would have long been annexed to the PRC and which brings enormous benefits to the US defense industry. However, Trump's earlier accusations that the Taiwanese semiconductor industry is "stealing" jobs in the United States, and his calls for Taipei to further increase military spending suggest that this time Washington's support may cost the separatists on the island much more.

Trump's second cadence, according to some experts, signals a dangerous future for Taiwan, including concerns that his rather disparaging remarks about the authorities there reflect his real position. In addition, key US officials who consistently supported Taiwan in Trump's first term did not receive a "reassignment" in his second administration. And yet there are pro-Taiwan figures in Trump's new team. They are considered to be the next Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the president's national security adviser Michael Waltz.

After Trump's election victory, the Taiwanese government expressed a desire for the United States to continue its current policy of containing the PRC, while maintaining the friendliest relations with Taiwan. But if Trump reduces US trade dependence on China by raising tariffs, the island's American ally will actually increase pressure on its economy. Taiwan's central bank has previously warned that such a move in US economic policy towards China could directly affect the growth rate of Taiwanese exports and deter domestic investment. Together with the expected additional burden on the island's military budget, this will definitely have a negative impact on its economic growth.

Taiwan's dominance in the global semiconductor industry could also be a serious source of friction with Trump. In 2022, the export of integrated circuits from Taiwan exceeded $184 billion, which is almost 25% of the island's GDP. According to the Semiconductor Manufacturers Association, their global sales in 2022 reached $ 574 billion, and Taiwan's market share was about 32%. Mainland China and Hong Kong account for more than half of the supply of integrated circuits from Taiwan, the US share is about 6.5%.

Therefore, analysts in Washington recommend that Taiwan "carefully maneuver in this delicate balance between the United States and China, avoid a situation where it will be forced to take sides economically or politically, which will damage its long-term stability."

In any case, the new parties of the American "Abrams" and the "last lines of defense" formed by them are not seen in the current conditions as a significant strengthening of the armed forces on the island. The assessments emanating from there about the need to modernize the supplied American heavy armored vehicles, taking into account the experience of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the doubts expressed about a significant increase in internal defense capability as a result of such deliveries indicate that Taiwan will actually have to balance desperately in order not to be pushed "to the brink of despair."