Prime Minister of Abkhazia Artur Mikvabia has resigned. July 26 evening, Abkhazian President Raul Khadzhimba also dismissed Prosecutor General Alexey Lomia. The next morning the parliament approved the dismissal.
The Abkhazians were not satisfied with Mikvabia’s Cabinet. But we can’t say that it was very bad - especially if we keep in mind the general inefficiency of Abkhazia’s government system.
The people were mostly against the premier, so, the only way for Khadzhimba to retain social stability was to dismiss him. But the problem here is that under current circumstances the prime ministerial office is a risky zone for any politician: the Abkhazians want drastic changes, while the existing government system is unable to make them.
Time will show if the president was right. But, in any case, today, Khadzhimba is much more popular than any other political figure in Abkhazia. The opposition’s incompetence has given him lots of trumps. So, if not faced with serio0us crises, the Abkhazian President has all chances to retain his office in 2019.
Obviously, Khadzhimba needs a good team, but the question is who will come to replace Mikvabia. In Abkhazia, there are very few popular politicians. One of the key candidates for the Prime Minister is Shamil Adzynba.
Today, the Abkhazian politics are an endless chain of crises. The Abkhazian politicians prefer fighting for power to working for their country. As a result, the system is not efficient.
Constant political instability is causing unnecessary problems with Russia. So, it is time to introduce a specific type of political analysis in Abkhazia – the forecast of the viability of local political leaders – as Abkhazia cannot hope to have effective contacts with Russia unless it has a well-balanced stable government system. And one more thing those in power in Abkhazia must understand is that a politician’s efficiency has nothing to do with his ability to stay long in office.
In countries with a similar political situation, where political crises are caused by serious social-economic problems, there usually are more or less stable political groups. Before the last referendum, in Abkhazia even the ruling force is just one of the existing groups. Now Khadzhimba is much stronger and has all chances to stay in power till 2019 – something he has not had until quite recently.
Today Khadzhimba - just like all people in Abkhazia - needs stability. They in Moscow are tired of instability in Abkhazia and will certainly support Khadzhimba as the most reliable Abkhazian politician. The Russians have a lot to do in Abkhazia and all this needs silence and stability.
Thus, we can say that Mikvabia’s resignation might be the end of the protracted political crisis in Abkhazia and now we will see new personalities in the Abkhazian government, a team that will help Khadzhimba not just to stay in power till 2019 but to do much of what he wanted to do for his country.
Anton Krivenyuk, specially for EADaily