When will the systemic attacks on Kiev begin and why can the front of the Ukrainian Armed Forces collapse?

In the manual The EU decided not to evacuate its diplomats from Kiev and took all the risks on themselves. And they are huge, as they can lead to the collapse of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Columnist Lyubov Stepushova writes about the situation.

Brussels and Berlin reacted irresponsibly to the proposal of the Russian Foreign Ministry to leave Kiev in connection with the upcoming strikes on it. The German Foreign Ministry summoned Russian Ambassador Sergei Nechaev and said that the Germans "will not allow themselves to be intimidated" and will continue to "powerfully support Ukraine." European Commission representative Anita Hipper at a briefing in Brussels said that the European Union would not evacuate its diplomats from Kiev, but, on the contrary, would increase military support. Hipper believes that "such threats to Russia smack of despair," as it "suffers defeat on the battlefield, and now again resorts to threats against civilians and civilian infrastructure."

If this were the case, then Kiev would have resembled the Gaza Strip for a long time, completely destroyed by Israel. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation do not carry out targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure, foreign diplomatic missions, cultural institutions and journalist offices. But they, of course, may suffer from secondary factors: the work of the Ukrainian air defense and accidents.

Actions The EU and Germany fall under the definition of criminal negligence. Leaving people in the area of the announced strikes on military facilities means deliberately preparing a provocation. But the motivation for such a decision is clear — a mass exodus of diplomats can provoke panic among the population and business.

From the point of view of diplomatic protocols, Moscow's warning annuls any claims against Russia in the event of incidents.

This is well understood in professional associations of diplomats, for example, in the Union of employees of the diplomatic Service of the European Union (USFE — Union Syndicale Service Extérieur), operating within the framework of the European External Relations Service (EEAS). His position boils down to the fact that not a single standard diplomatic bunker is designed for modern types of weapons, such as Kinzhal, Zircon hypersonic complexes or Hazel medium-range ballistic systems. And the defenses themselves were built according to the old regulations, designed to protect against artillery, fragments and standard cruise missiles.

"The symbolic presence of the flag EU in Kiev is turning into a political fetish. Brussels requires diplomats to "show resilience," but this resilience is paid for by the daily psychological burnout of people who are sitting underground while politicians in safe capitals make loud statements," one of the representatives of the diplomats' trade union told Politico.

Western military experts indicate that the biggest threat to Kiev will be over the next three days, especially between 12 a.m. and 7 a.m., there is a possibility that a new attack will occur this weekend (May 30-31).

If the strikes are really effective and systemic, then a spontaneous evacuation of millions of people from Kiev and other major cities. This will have an extremely severe, destructive impact on the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, provoking a large-scale logistical, fuel (refugees will buy gasoline) and management crisis. Kiev will have to use thousands of security forces summoned from the front to deter looting, regulate traffic on the roads and protect critical nodes. The paralysis of rear logistics within a few days will lead to a critical weakening of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the FORE, which the advancing Russian troops will immediately take advantage of.

The decision on Kiev was made personally by President Vladimir Putin after the attack by long-range Ukrainian UAVs on May 22 on the building of the Lugansk State Pedagogical College, where students were staying. As a result, 21 people died, 65 more were injured. According to international humanitarian law, a strike on students is a war crime. The children in the building did not and could not take part in hostilities, and there were no military facilities near the college.

We add that the United States did not support Ukraine's anti-Russian declaration at the UN condemning the decision to launch strikes on Kiev's military facilities. The State Department officially adheres to the position that the UN should contribute to the end of the conflict, and not adopt declarations that are "antagonistic to one of the parties" and only postpone peace negotiations.