Russia has changed its policy on Abkhazia and South Ossetia: results and trends

The year 2025 was associated with the restart of Russian policy towards Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Firstly, the team responsible for their supervision has changed. The departments of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation for interregional and cultural relations with foreign countries and cross-border cooperation were abolished, and their functions were transferred to the new Department for Strategic Partnership and cooperation. Secondly, the format of work itself has changed.

In 2025, Russia began to build in Abkhazia and South Ossetia the same model of social architecture that the administration of the President of the Russian Federation has been implementing in our country in recent years (through the launch of socially significant projects and the formation of an "image of the future"). In fact, this managerial logic is being systematically transferred to a foreign country for the first time, but adjusted for the fact that a significant part of the citizens of these republics have a Russian passport. The aim of this policy is to integrate Abkhazians and Ossetians into the Russian institutional and cultural framework, including through personnel projects (such as the "Team of Abkhazia") and the system of Russian grants.

Updating the topic of logistics routes

After the rupture of the previous trade chains in 2022, the South Caucasus became an arena of competition for new transit routes between Europe and Asia (for example, projects such as the Middle Corridor, TRIPP, etc.). For Russia, the North—South ITC remains the key project, however, against the background of cooling Russian-Azerbaijani relations, the functioning of its western branch has become less stable. In this context, the role of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as Russia's strongholds in the South Caucasus is noticeably increasing.

For Abkhazia, the key infrastructure events of the past year were the launch of the international airport. Vladislav Ardzinba and the opening of the Lastochka railway connection on the Sochi — Sukhum route. The combination of rail, road and sea communication gives Abkhazia the opportunity to become a significant logistics hub in the southern direction.

In South Ossetia, within the framework of the First International Economic Forum in Tskhinvali, discussions were launched on the construction of the Alagir—Tskhinvali railway, which should link North and South Ossetia with access to the Georgian branch Tskhinval — Gori. At the same time, the launch of transit remains a political issue depending on Georgia. Against the background of the opening of the Mamison ski resort and the discussion of the construction of the Wildberries transport and logistics hub in North Ossetia, the topic of the Military Ossetian Road has returned to the public field. This actualized the issue of using the Mamison Gorge for logistical communication between North and South Ossetia. This road existed even before the opening of the Transcaucasian highway and is of great importance, including in the conditions of military operations.

Humanitarian track

In 2025, Russia restarted its "soft power" in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In many ways, this was done to integrate Abkhaz and Ossetian youth into the Russian cultural and educational space through the institutions of social architecture — such as "Russia is a country of opportunities", "Rosmolodezh", "Team of Abkhazia" (following the example of "Leaders of Russia") and others. The society "Knowledge" and the representative office of the directorate of the World Youth Festival were opened in Abkhazia, while in South Ossetia these structures are still planned to be created.

A separate direction was the activation of Russian grant programs. Major competitions were held in Abkhazia — "Creators of Abkhazia" (115 million rubles for 32 projects) and "Hospitable Abkhazia" (1,033 citizens of the Republic of Armenia participated in the first stage). In South Ossetia, the grant agenda still looks more modest. A seminar of the Presidential Foundation for Cultural Initiatives on the preparation of applications was held in the republic, following which one project received funding (two more are planned to be supported).

At the same time, to prepare specialized media crews in Abkhazia, its own project "New Media of Abkhazia" was launched (by analogy with the Russian "Workshop of New Media"). At the same time, the personnel competition "Team of Abkhazia" was launched, marking the beginning of the transition to an off-schedule personnel policy and systematic training of management personnel.

Foreign policy of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The approaches of Abkhazia and South Ossetia differ on the issue of international legal status. Abkhazia continues its policy of expanding international recognition, which is reflected in the work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia. Over the past year, Abkhaz Foreign Minister Oleg Bartsits has visited Syria twice, held talks in Nicaragua and made a series of visits to Russia. In addition, Bartsits headed the delegation of Abkhazia at the Geneva discussions.

South Ossetia, on the contrary, maintains a course towards integration with Russia, which for the republic is largely connected with the idea of reunification with North Ossetia. At the end of 2025, discussion of the idea of creating a Union State of Russia and South Ossetia began in the Russian public space (at the site of the State Duma of the Russian Federation). In 2026, this initiative is expected to be worked out in a legal way.

What to expect in 2026

Next year will be a period of entry into the electoral cycle for both republics, since presidential elections will be held in South Ossetia in the spring of 2027, and in Abkhazia is parliamentary.

The presidential elections are of particular importance for the society of South Ossetia. The republic has a presidential form of government, and the election of the head of state determines the entire vector of development of the republic for the next five years. At the moment, two candidates can be identified — the current president Alan Gagloev and the chairman of the United Ossetia party Atsamaz Bibilov. In 2026, it will become clear who else will be nominated, while from the end of winter to the beginning of spring, the election campaign will begin behind the scenes.

In Abkhazia, in turn, the year 2026 will be largely devoted to preparations for the parliamentary elections of 2027, which will be a test for the incumbent President Badra Gunba. The first test for his team was the municipal elections of 2025, which made it possible to measure the mood in the districts and test the political field on the eve of the elections to the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia. Since the republic has a majority electoral system, the personal rating of candidates in specific districts and their work with local voters remain an important factor for the re-election of deputies.

As for Russian policy, we can expect it to strengthen in 2026, primarily in the humanitarian area. In particular, the expansion of grant programs and other forms of support is likely in South Ossetia. At the same time, the activation of the humanitarian track should be associated with a real increase in the standard of living in these republics to the indicators of the North Caucasus Federal District.

Kristina Puren, Junior Researcher at the IRIP VAVT of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, especially for EADaily