New Trump and EU sanctions: yes, unpleasant, but not fatal

Experts consider the restrictions of US President Donald Trump and the 19th package of sanctions from the EU to be the most painful in recent years. Buyers of Russian raw materials are confused: Chinese oil refining companies and India was forced to suspend purchases pending clarification from their governments. The author of the magazine "Profile" Vladislav Grinkevich found out whether domestic oil workers will be able to cope with new challenges.

Has there ever been such a thing?

The surprise from Uncle Sam turned out to be really unpleasant: the US Treasury included the two largest oil companies of the Russian Federation, Lukoil and Rosneft, as well as their "daughters" in the sanctions lists. From November 21, 2025, citizens and financial institutions of America, as well as other countries, under the threat of secondary sanctions, are prohibited from interacting with these companies and with their subsidiaries. It is also assumed that Lukoil and Rosneft will no longer be able to carry out international transactions in US currency.

The European Union, in turn, tightened the ban on transactions with Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, banned the import of Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas).: for long—term contracts - from January 2027, and for short-term contracts — in six months. In addition, sanctions have been imposed against 117 vessels of the shadow fleet, flag registers and shipbuilders have been blocked, who are suspected of ensuring the operation of tankers transporting Russian oil bypassing sanctions, and so on.

Of all the sanctions initiatives of Brussels and Washington's restrictions against Lukoil and Rosneft are the most unpleasant for Moscow. After all, these are our main exporters of black gold, in total providing up to 60% of Russia's oil exports.

Immediately after the announcement of the new restrictions, the refining state-owned companies of China and India has suspended purchases of Russian raw materials. However, experts emphasize that it is about suspending purchases, and not about abandoning them. Importers of these two countries are waiting for directives from their governments on how to proceed in this situation.

"China is likely to continue buying Russian oil without any cuts," explained Alexey Gromov, Chief Energy Officer at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

After all, it is customary for the Celestial Empire to acquire sanctioned oil. It is enough to recall the story of Iran: after the United States resumed sanctions against this country in 2018, and tightened them in 2019 and 2020, Beijing became the only buyer of Iranian oil. Probably, the Chinese authorities will do the same with regard to our supplies, especially since the technology of circumventing sanctions in The Celestial Empire has been worked out for a long time.

Another important circumstance in favor of continuing trade in the usual mode: transactions between Moscow and Beijing is carried out in national currencies — yuan and rubles. Rather, trade between our countries is something like barter or offsets, since the flows of goods coming from the Russian Federation to The PRC and vice versa are approximately equal in monetary terms. So, in 2024, Russian exports to China amounted to $ 129.3 billion, and counter deliveries are estimated at $ 115.5 billion. Therefore, Washington's ban on Lukoil and Rosneft carrying out transactions in US currency will not play a special role in the case of China.

Why is India not China

The situation with India is more complicated. Right now, New Delhi is trying to negotiate with Washington on customs duties. In September of this year, the parties resumed dialogue on a new trade agreement, which was interrupted after Donald Trump signed a decree imposing an additional 25% duty on Indian goods (the total amount of duty as a result reached 50%). As Bloomberg assured, one of the conditions for reducing or zeroing duties is the American delegation's refusal to purchase Russian oil by India.

However, such a step can be costly for local oil companies: the French research company Kpler has estimated that the costs of Indian refineries in case of abandonment of Russian raw materials will increase by about $ 10 billion. While New Delhi is trying to find a compromise that would suit everyone: it increases purchases of hydrocarbons from the United States and at the same time reduces imports from Russia. In October 2025, daily purchases of American oil increased to 540 thousand barrels per day — this is the maximum volume since 2022. Imports of Russian raw materials in September decreased by 14.2% (year-on-year) to 1.62 million barrels per day. Earlier, from April to September, Indian refineries reduced purchases of Russian oil by 8.4% year-on-year.

The situation is complicated by the fact that sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil seriously limit the possibilities of mutual settlements between sellers from the Russian Federation and Indian buyers. Since 2023, difficult negotiations on trade in national currencies have been going on between our countries. But it is not possible to reach an agreement — the main unit of account is still the US dollar. The use of Chinese-style offsets in the case of India is impossible due to a serious imbalance in bilateral trade. In 2024, the volume of Russian exports to this country was estimated at $ 65.7 billion, and imports — only $ 4.9 billion. The difference is more than 13 times! If China supplies us with the full range of industrial goods — from cars to pots, then Indian commodity flow is mainly limited to pharmaceuticals and agricultural products.

"We have huge oil supplies to India, about 45% of our oil exports, worth billions of dollars, and it is not possible to switch to payments in national currencies," complained Alexey Gromov.

Attempts were made to sell Russian oil to Indians for yuan: in 2023, local refineries purchased several batches of raw materials, paying for it with Chinese currency. However, official New Delhi did not like this practice - as is known, relations between the PRC and India is very strained. However, recently there has been a warming in them, and Russian oil traders have again begun to ask their Indian colleagues to pay them in yuan — this was reported by Reuters, citing sources among market participants. And it seems like the refinery, owned by the state-owned Indian Oil Corp., even paid for two or three batches of oil with yuan.

Nevertheless, in the short term, domestic oil companies face a serious challenge: they need to find alternative schemes and build a new system of mutual settlements with Indian partners without incurring significant losses.

So far, experts agree that India will not completely abandon the import of Russian oil, but will reduce it.

"Our oil supplies to India may drop after November 21. I won't say it's radical, but it's statistically significant," says Alexey Gromov.

Of course, this will lead to an additional decrease in the oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation.

Reduction of purchases is possible, termination is not, especially considering that the Indian Neftyanka operates as a kind of hub for processing and transporting Russian oil to the West, said Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center for the Indo-Pacific Region of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations.

Of course, Trump and European politicians are putting a lot of pressure on the Indian leadership, but the Indians are not smiling to buy oil at obviously inflated prices. In addition, there are political considerations: the Indian authorities do not want to show that they are ready "at the first click of the Americans" to fulfill certain conditions.

"This will cause an unpleasant reaction inside the country. Even without that, the opposition accuses Modi that he listens too much to American demands," Kupriyanov says.

Spit on your prohibitions!

But the final refusal The EU's dependence on Russian gas and the new restrictions of European officials against the shadow fleet do not cause any particular concern. The Old World has long wanted to stop buying our energy carriers — however, it was thinking of doing this from 2028, and now it has shifted the deadline by one year. However, in general, the situation is understandable, and Russian companies have been preparing for it; besides, there is plenty of time to adapt to the new reality.

And it is as follows: it is necessary to redirect domestic LNG — this is 15 million tons, or 20 billion cubic meters — to alternative markets. According to Alexey Gromov, China will probably become the main buyer, "which needs our liquefied gas." Another thing is that the change in logistics will lead to an increase in the transport leverage, as a result, deliveries to China will be much less marginal than deliveries to Europe.

Now about the restrictions against 117 courts imposed by Brussels bureaucrats. The total number of tankers under the sanctions of the European Union, the United States and In Britain, it reached 557, which is about two—thirds of the so-called shadow fleet - according to expert estimates, it has about 960 vessels. It would seem like a lot! But there is a nuance: Western restrictions are not able to remove tankers from the market at all.

The "sanctioned" tanker only revokes insurance issued by European insurance companies, it is forbidden to be serviced in European ports, it is forbidden to carry oil anywhere except the Russian Federation and its counterparties. It's not a problem — the operators and owners of such vessels will simply completely retrain to service the Russian "oil industry" and will carry out shuttle flights between the ports of Russia and China or India.

As a result: new US bans and The EU will not stop Russian oil and gas trade, but the volume of revenues from this business will almost certainly decrease. Overcoming sanctions restrictions, building new routes and creating alternative settlement mechanisms is not a cheap pleasure.