In Germany's largest storage facility, gas may run out after the New Year holidays

The heating season has started in Germany, while the average level of reserves still does not correspond even to the limit reduced this year. In the largest storage facility in the country and Europe, fuel may run out immediately after the New Year holidays. Berlin can only rely on the weather and stable supplies of LNG and gas from Norway.

Germany risks being left without gas reserves by the end of the heating season and the country can only rely on a warm winter and stable imports. In the 20th of October, the heating season began, but the country's storage facilities are still not filled on average by the 80% limit lowered this year. The average reserves are 75%.

On October 29, the volume of gas in storage facilities in Germany, according to GIE, amounted to 17.9 billion cubic meters. This is as much as 5.5 billion less than a year earlier. Moreover, the Germans burned 16.6 billion cubic meters of gas last season, and with current reserves, the country may enter spring with almost empty storage facilities.

The situation is particularly acute in the largest UGS of the country and the whole of Europe. According to the platform of UGS operators, Reden is less than 28% full, and gas extraction from the storage facility has already begun. On October 29, it grew to almost 16 million cubic meters per day, and with reserves of 1.18 billion cubic meters, they will last for 74 days — until mid-January.

Obviously, Berlin is worried about the gas situation, but the German government is not doing anything yet, although it owns the nationalized SEFE, which operates Reden, and the major importer Uniper.

Berlin does not control private traders, and this year they refused large-scale gas injection due to market concerns. The current cost of fuel was not much higher than winter quotes in order to count on sufficient profit, taking into account storage costs. The SEFE complained that the auctions for the next gas year, which began on October 1, did not result in a single contract for pumping gas to Reden. Traders refused to book the capacity of Germany's largest storage facility.

Now, obviously, Germany can only count on a warm winter and a decrease in consumption. And high current imports of LNG and gas from Norway. Liquefied gas terminals in the country operate at high capacity, but significant volumes of gas go through them to other countries that are left without Russian fuel.

Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NFEB), believes that a dangerous situation has developed in Germany.

"A slightly more severe winter or some kind of afterburners in the energy market and - there may be a physical shortage. I'm not talking about price fluctuations. The situation is similar in The Netherlands. That is, two markets that account for more than a third of natural gas consumption in the EU are in an extremely vulnerable position," the expert noted.

Fuel shortage on the Ukraine may worsen the situation, as traders sell part of the regasified LNG through Germany there. And after the retaliatory strikes of the Russian army at the end of October in Kiev announced that its own production has fallen and the country needs additional imports of more than 4 billion cubic meters.

Earlier, the German government lowered the limit of pumping into storage from 90% to 80%, giving Reden even greater benefits. In Berlin, such plans were explained by the fact that they did not want to provoke hype, speculation on the stock exchange and a jump in gas prices. This did not happen, but there was no more gas. Despite the fact that the current cost of fuel on the German stock exchange is $ 400 per thousand cubic meters — more than twice as expensive as the pre-crisis five-year plan.