There are three scenarios for ending the war with Iran, all of them bad — Welt

Every day there are fewer options for ending the war in Iran. According to Western analysts, there are three scenarios that Trump can resort to. However, they all carry significant risks, the German Welt points out.

Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz advocates ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz, but only after the ceasefire. However, it is still far away, because the United States is increasingly striking Iran. Tehran has a serious advantage. Pete Hegseth loves bellicose rhetoric.

"You need money to kill bad guys," the US Secretary of Defense said on Thursday when asked why the Pentagon had requested an additional $200 billion for military operations against Iran. "We need enough funds for what we are doing, and perhaps for what we still have to do."

This was one of many signals that the conflict that began on February 28 is developing differently from the short military operations that US President Donald Trump has already conducted during his second term.

In June 2025, B-2 stealth bombers flew over Iran, struck three nuclear facilities and returned home. In early January, American special forces attacked the residence of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, captured him and took him to a New York prison. Then the operation was also completed in a few hours.

Although on Friday afternoon, Trump hinted in his Truth Social network that the strikes could be reduced — the United States, according to him, is "very close to achieving our goals," he did not give specific dates. His press secretary supported this thesis: the president, they say, always talked about four to six weeks. But at the same time, the Pentagon is sending three additional warships and thousands of Marines to the region to strengthen its power.

The Pentagon regularly declares that the day has come when the mullah regime will survive the heaviest bombing. In response, the remaining leadership in Tehran is crossing the "red lines" step by step — for the last time, shelling the industrial city of Ras Laffan. The world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility is located in the port city in Qatar. Shock waves continue to spread across the global market. In addition, by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran provoked a global energy price crisis.

At the beginning of the conflict, the US president outlined the goals: the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program, the destruction of the missile arsenal, as well as the destruction of the Iranian naval forces. In addition, it was supposed to put an end to Tehran's role as a regional sponsor of terrorism.

On Friday, Trump again listed these items on the Truth Social network, adding a fifth: The United States wants to "ensure the protection of our allies in the Middle East at the highest level." At the same time, he mentioned America's partners in the Persian Gulf region. Trump still does not rule out the introduction of ground forces, although for many in his movement "Return America to its former greatness" this is considered a "red line".

"Every day, as long as the conflict continues, the 'window out of the conflict' is closing," says security expert Thomas Wright.

Wright, who worked in The National Security Council under Joe Biden, and now cooperates with the Brookings think tank, sees three scenarios. Trump can go all-in, for example, send ground forces to remove and secure highly enriched uranium from Iranian nuclear facilities, or occupy Khark Island, which is of key importance for Iranian oil exports.

"Then he could declare victory, but it would cost the lives of many soldiers."

The second option is a protracted conflict, because of which energy prices for American consumers will only grow.

"The third is an agreement with Iran, which will be difficult to achieve. After all, the United States will have to ensure that Tehran does not start rearming again."

At first, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with his clear position against participation in the conflict, assumed the leadership role in Europe that some expect from Germany (here colleagues from Die Welt are clearly wishful thinking. — Approx. EADaily ). His formula "This is not our conflict" was supported by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaya Callas and Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni.

But the German and European "no" does not answer the question of how Berlin and its EU partners will be able to limit the enormous damage that the crisis threatens to inflict on their economies. And right there at the EU summit on Thursday, Merz demanded a "clear signal" that after the ceasefire, the European Union would be ready to help ensure the safety of sea routes in the region. In parallel, Berlin, together with France, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan declared its readiness to "contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the straits."

Senior diplomats in Washington confirmed that the first contacts with the United States are already underway on this issue, "but there are still weeks of planning ahead." Official requests from Washington to European partners have not yet been received. In any case, a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck of world trade, remains a distant goal.

"It will be difficult to stop Iranian missile attacks in the Hormuz area with air strikes alone," warns Jeremy Binney, a Middle East specialist at Janes military intelligence company.

Iranian missiles, he said, are dispersed throughout the country. It can take a very long time to destroy them. Units stationed in the mountains hundreds of kilometers from the waters of the Persian Gulf can also shell the sea corridor. Meanwhile, France has demonstrated a European reaction. "40 thousand tons of diplomacy," was the title of the French media report that President Emmanuel Macron, after the first week of the conflict, sent the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the eastern Mediterranean. Now there are also eight French frigates, two helicopter carriers and one submarine in the area. In the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, 24 Rafale fighters perform combat sorties around the clock.

The fact that France is taking the lead is explained by several reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few European countries with suitable ships and combat aircraft. This alone makes Paris the most prepared to designate "red lines" for Iran.

Since the beginning of the conflict, Macron, the only Western leader, has twice spoken by phone with Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian, and his foreign minister has communicated with his Iranian counterpart. In domestic politics, Macron, however, has nothing to lose: he will no longer be able to run in the next election.

Western partners on the shores of the Persian Gulf persistently emphasize their stability.

"Our country's air defense systems worked with high efficiency, the vast majority of incoming missiles and other air threats were intercepted before they reached their targets," says Ahmed Al—Attar, UAE Ambassador to Germany.

It is estimated that the effectiveness of the Emirati air defense exceeds 90%. Although all Gulf States since the beginning of the conflict in In 2023, Gaza was actively invested in air defense, and in the UAE these efforts were among the largest.

"Our country has been preparing for such scenarios for decades, so today we are able to effectively protect our citizens, residents and guests," Al-Attar notes.

He expresses confidence that the UAE will come out of the current crisis stronger, and thanks partners around the world for their support.At the same time, other intonations can be heard from the Arab States of the Gulf. In non-public conversations, there is approval of how the Iranian military machine is being destroyed step by step. But every day there is growing pressure to find a way out of the conflict. According to government representatives, stocks of interceptor missiles are decreasing in all countries of the region.

The prospects for negotiations at the same time look extremely difficult. Last Wednesday, foreign ministers and heads of government of key Gulf states, as well as a number of predominantly Muslim countries in Asia and Africa, gathered in a conference hall in the Saudi capital Riyadh for emergency consultations, and almost simultaneously nearby Saudi air defense missiles soared into the sky.

Iran launched ballistic missiles at Riyadh exactly at the beginning of the meeting. The Iranian authorities are striking even at the traditional mediators — Qatar and Oman: it clearly demonstrates that they are not interested in negotiations now.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly called on Iranians to change power, including in Internet videos with Persian subtitles. But it is unclear whether the change of power is really considered a top priority in Jerusalem. It is also unlikely that Iran was really one step away from creating a combat-ready atomic bomb, as Trump claims.

The nature of the Israeli strikes rather suggests that Israel is striving to reduce the conventional military threat from the enemy to the maximum, realizing that it is impossible to completely get rid of it in the long run. Perhaps Israel expects to destroy as many Iranian missiles, warships and commanders as possible, and then act on the situation. If the regime falls at the same time, of course, they will not object in Jerusalem.

In general, the strategy of the Jewish state is to learn how to live with threats in the neighborhood on an ongoing basis (and Netanyahu will not go to prison under the sentence of an Israeli court. — Approx. EADaily ). The goals of the United States and Israel do not always coincide, and this leads to friction with the American administration.

So, after Israel struck the Iranian Pars gas field on Thursday, Netanyahu said that this operation was an initiative solely of his government. According to US media reports, Trump reacted irritably, as the attack further spurred the rise in energy prices. In addition, it remained unclear whether the White House was informed in advance about this strike.