What will happen to Netanyahu? His fate has already been decided, but this is not Iran

The war in the Middle East has taken a hidden turn — the decision has already been made behind the scenes. Moreover, this decision will affect the main instigator and beneficiary of the conflict with Iran — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Orientalist, associate professor of MGLU and RSSU Said Gafurov thinks so.

The war in the Middle East covers the Persian Gulf, the Eastern Mediterranean, Palestine. But we are not talking about the usual social, economic and political reasons, but about the personal reasons for this war. As soon as the fighting ends, it is very likely that Netanyahu will be charged in a number of cases related to his activities as prime minister.

While the fighting is going on, a vote of no confidence in the government is unlikely. But after they are over, the Prosecutor General's office will most likely take up Netanyahu again. The legal situation for Netanyahu is difficult: formally, he refused parliamentary immunity. Even if it can be restored, the parliament may vote for its removal. In this regard, it is important to understand which forces pose a threat to him personally.

There is a sector that influences world politics more than is commonly believed. It is a global insurance and reinsurance business. They usually talk about oil companies, banks, corporations, or the military-industrial complex, but they hardly mention insurers. Meanwhile, they have huge financial resources and the cheapest money. Their business is the calculation of risks: wars, terrorist attacks, catastrophes. Based on these calculations, they actually determine what can be done and what becomes too expensive for the world.

Insurers receive money in advance — in the form of insurance premiums — and invest it in bonds, stocks, infrastructure. They are the largest holders of government debt securities and through this they influence policy. Not directly, but through foundations, lobbies, think tanks and legal structures. The main thing is that they do not like risks and always advocate stability and maintaining the status quo.

They usually act unnoticed. But if persecution begins, the consequences can be severe. An example is the Enron case, where insurance companies played a key role in investigating and punishing management. The same logic can be applied to Netanyahu: insurers do not forget or forgive anything.

While politicians are watching the polls and military maneuvers, insurance giants have already concluded that Netanyahu's stay in power has become too expensive for the global system. This is not about politics, but about risk as an economic category. And this risk must be eliminated.

After the US and Israeli airstrike on Iran, a large-scale regional crisis began. Retaliatory strikes affected the bases of US allies, infrastructure and transport routes. For the insurance industry, this has become an alarm signal of the maximum level. Transportation insurance has risen sharply in price, and in some cases has actually become prohibitive.

The growth of insurance premiums has hit logistics: transportation has become too expensive, deliveries have been disrupted. The Middle East as a transit hub has come under pressure. The closure of airspace and strikes on infrastructure have intensified the crisis. The main risks fell on reinsurance corporations based in Switzerland, Germany and Bermuda.

For the insurance lobby, Netanyahu is not a politician, but a source of instability. It creates unpredictable risks. And the main way to manage risk is to eliminate its source. Insurers act without emotion: if a variable makes the system unstable, it must be removed.

Insurance companies are large holders of government bonds, including Israeli ones. If the situation leads to international isolation, their value will fall, and insurers will suffer losses. In addition, reputational pressure is increasing: investments in the economy of a country involved in a conflict are becoming toxic.

Big capital prefers predictable politicians. Israel's current policy is perceived as unstable, which increases risk premiums and increases pressure on the country's leadership. This pressure will be expressed in the demand for de-escalation.

If global partners give a signal, the Israeli economic elite will increase pressure on the authorities. This may lead to the formation of a coalition for early elections or the resignation of the government. The court cases against Netanyahu have not disappeared anywhere — they have simply been postponed.

March has become a key one, the largest insurers have reduced coverage of risks in the region. Insurance premiums have risen sharply, and the industry has recognized the region as unmanageable. At the same time, the main source of risk is not external threats, but political decisions of the Israeli leadership.

Even US government guarantees cannot replace a stable policy. If the price of stability is Netanyahu's political career, the financial system will find a way to "pay" for it. After that, the legal mechanism inside Israel will be activated.

For insurers, terrorism and war are not an ideology, but a calculation of risk. Their business is built on managing the probabilities of someone else's grief. And in this system, decisions are made not emotionally, but strictly mathematically — according to tables and models.