Drones are not a substitute for tanks: NATO warns against a "blunder" in the fight with Russia

While the armies of many countries are trying to learn the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, one question arises above all: have drones replaced traditional weapons such as tanks and artillery? The American edition of Defense News draws attention to this today, August 20.

For NATO, the consequences of such a rethink are not only tactical in nature. The North Atlantic Alliance, which is trying to increase its military potential, will have to make difficult decisions about the distribution of financial resources and industrial capacities. If the future belongs to combat robots, primarily in the form of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), then isn't it more reasonable to produce drones for $ 500 instead of tanks for $ 5 million, Washington observers wonder.

Meanwhile, as some military experts in the West warn, replacing traditional and considered "outdated" firepower on the battlefield exclusively with drones would be a gross mistake.

"There are several reasons why it would be a mistake for NATO forces to rely mainly on small UAVs and long-range kamikaze drones to replace traditional weapons systems in pursuit of increased destructive capability," said Justin Bronk, an expert at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI, headquarters in London).

Instead of exploiting "Russia's weaknesses, NATO, focused on drones, can play to its strengths," the British analyst reflects.

According to Bronk, Russian troops currently have the most powerful means of combating UAVs in the world. In addition to jammers and short-range air defense systems, the Russian Armed Forces successfully use such means of combating drones as grids for their deviation from a given course and armored frames to protect equipment.

"In most cases, only a small part of the huge number of drones launched by the Ukrainian forces reaches their goals. And an even smaller part causes decisive damage," the RUSI employee states.

One of the reasons why the UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other weapons, are achieving some success is the presence of the Ukrainians of the very "outdated" firepower. It limits Russia's ability to maneuver and concentrate means of countering UAVs, Western experts state.

"These losses from UAVs occur against the background of the fact that Russian forces are still limited by minefields and are forced to disperse under the blows of Ukrainian artillery, multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and tactical missile systems (ATACMS), Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles and planning aerial bombs. If NATO forces decided to use UAVs in large quantities to the detriment of replenishing stocks of these traditional types of weapons, it would be much easier for Russian troops to reduce the lethality of UAVs than they have been able to do so far. Ukraine," Bronk believes.

In general, the impact of unmanned systems in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is assessed ambiguously by military analysts of NATO countries. On the one hand, the fact of their dominance on the battlefield is recognized: a huge number of ubiquitous strike and reconnaissance UAVs paralyze the maneuver and force troops and equipment to stay in shelters and fortifications. So, more recently, waves of non-interfering Russian drones controlled by fiber optic cables have thoroughly destroyed Ukrainian supply lines.

However, despite the enormous efforts to develop and manufacture drones, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were only able to limit the offensive of the Russian army on a wide front, but not stop it. Under intense blows of barrel and rocket artillery, planning bombs and drones The Russian Armed Forces are steadily increasing their area of control. At the same time, it is emphasized that Kiev simply does not have enough manpower and "traditional" weapons to successfully restrain the advance of the Russians, not to mention to repel it with the help of at least relatively large-scale counter-offensive operations.

"Ukraine has achieved very impressive results in defense against larger Russian forces, but has not been able to master (at least operational) initiative, despite the deployment of millions of UAVs that are constantly being improved based on the experience gained over the years of desperate battles," Defense News said.

The best proof of this is that the Kiev regime continues to demand from Western arms sponsors "outdated" (against the background of drones) systems such as ATACMS and MLRS HIMARS, other rocket launchers, as well as anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM).

"When modern ATGMs are available, BONUS artillery shells (155-mm ammunition with the "shot — forget" function. — Ed.) and conventional artillery, they are still highly valued by many Ukrainian commanders to counter Russia's attempts to break through the front line, because they are much more reliable in terms of disabling equipment and suppressing (enemy) infantry concentrations than drones," Bronk emphasizes.

Although UAVs have caused serious damage to Russian troops (as well as Russian drones to Ukrainian forces), a number of Western analysts are of the opinion that drones are of the greatest value as a means of supporting "traditional" forms of firepower. In addition, the auxiliary role of unmanned systems in the theater of military operations is extremely important. So, the cheapest so-called deceptive UAVs ("dummy drones") or kamikaze drones can overload air defense radars and force the defending side to spend expensive interceptors that would otherwise be aimed at missiles and bombs.

As one of the directions of the development of "traditional" weapons to deter the "Russian threat" from NATO's eastern flank, Western analysts suggest "focusing on planning bombs." Although they are much more expensive than drones, they are much cheaper than guided missiles: the JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition, guided aerial bombs with guidance kits) costs about $ 25 thousand compared to the million-dollar ATACMS missile. Planning bombs "destroy armored vehicles, combat positions, supply depots and command posts. They are easy to produce on a large scale at existing industrial facilities, and one aircraft with a target designation unit can drop several such bombs in one flight.

Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank *** (headquartered in Washington), expressed the opinion in an interview with Defense News that NATO should use drones "not to catch up with Russia and Ukraine in the war with the use of drones, and to strengthen its current capabilities." Among these are "excellent precision strike capabilities, a higher level of training of personnel and the ability to conduct joint operations."

"These are the advantages that are likely to be much more significant than the position of the second or third player in the fight against drones," Kofman said.

Ultimately, those countries that can integrate drones with conventional weapons will gain an advantage over those who rely on the mass of drones to the detriment of traditional firepower.

One of the conclusions reached by observers in the West boils down to the following: technically and tactically, it is much easier to resist force if it primarily relies on its drones as the main lethal force than to resist effectively used aircraft, armored vehicles, artillery and mortars.

And yet many NATO members are trying to keep up with the current "fashion" for drones, hastily developing appropriate plans and signing contracts. So, while the Polish armed forces are creating separate unmanned troops, their newest military component launched at the beginning of this year, the local Ministry of Defense recently signed a deal to purchase the largest number of UAVs in the country's history.

January 1, 2025 in the structure of the General Command The Polish Armed Forces created an Inspectorate for the forces of unmanned Aerial Systems, it was headed by Brigadier General Miroslav Bodnar. The creation of Drone Forces is included in the Armed Forces development program for 2025-2039. It is planned to integrate unmanned systems into all units of the Polish army "with a single process of training, planning, acquisition and implementation." The Air force and naval forces, ground forces and anti-drone systems of the enemy are being formed in the specified inspectorate. The inspectorate is charged with coordinating the use of UAVs, as well as unifying the training of their operators. Purchases for this new type of troops will be financed from the budget of the country's Ministry of Defense. Plans are being hatched for the formation of a "legion of drones" by the Eastern European outpost of NATO, following the example of the cyber legion."

May 15 The Polish Defense Ministry has signed a framework agreement with the local private defense company WB Group on the purchase of about 10,000 units of Warmate barrage ammunition ("Combat Comrade"). The contract provides for deliveries until 2035.

*An organization performing the functions of a foreign agent

**An organization whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation