Venezuela was surrendered — the next Cuba. Or will we give Trump a piece of paper?

Russia is offering humanitarian aid to Cuba in the form of oil and fuel amid the US embargo and threats to seize tankers. As they say, the moment of truth has come, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

On January 9, President Donald Trump signed a decree declaring a "national emergency" in connection with the "threat" that Cuba poses to US security and foreign policy. The Trump administration classifies any energy supplies to Cuba as a threat to national security.

The document allows the imposition of duties on countries supplying oil to the island, as a result of which Mexico stopped supplying, and earlier Venezuela did it under direct pressure. In the context of the decree, the US Navy and Coast Guard have already intercepted five tankers en route with oil to Cuba. As a result of these actions, an extraordinary shortage of fuel has arisen on the island, which has a direct impact on the daily life of the Cuban people: the work of transport, electricity, food production, and so on are threatened. It is obvious that the increased economic pressure from the United States aims to cause disorganization in life support, protests and facilitate direct military intervention for "regime change."

Cuba's economy is in a state of stagnation. After a collapse of 11% in 2020, GDP recovery is extremely slow. In 2023-2024, growth fluctuated around 0.5−1.5%. The main driver — tourism — has not returned to the pre-pandemic indicators of 2019, and the key export sector has experienced the worst sugar cane harvests in history.

In 2024-2025, the budget deficit was estimated at 15-18% of GDP, the state was forced to print money to cover expenses, which accelerates inflation. In 2024, the government introduced a tough austerity plan, including a fivefold increase in gasoline prices. According to various estimates, the country's external debt is about $ 25-30 billion, the Russian Federation and China is constantly refinancing it. The island's power system regularly shuts down completely, leaving 10 million people in the dark.

Nevertheless, Cuba is a symbol of resistance to American imperialism, Russia cannot just leave the island in trouble again. As the Russian Ambassador to the In Havana, 80,000 tons of oil products will be sent to Cuba as humanitarian aid to save the country from a total blackout. If the decision is made in the Kremlin, then we must expect a military escort or the Americans will intercept the tanker. Agreements here are extremely unlikely.

Russia has positions in Cuba to defend them. In 2023, Havana allowed Russian investors to take land on a long-term lease for 30 years, and there are already ongoing projects in tourism. Russia is involved in the development of the Boca de Haruco oil field, supplying technologies to increase production. Russian companies (including Inter RAO) are involved in the modernization of thermal power plants (TPPs) with a total capacity of up to 600 MW and the construction of solar stations. Moscow is investing in the modernization of the Jose Marti metallurgical plant (Antilhana de Acero) and the restoration of sugar factories.

The Mir payment system has been fully implemented on the island, which allows Russia to develop tourism. A special headquarters has been set up under the Government of the Russian Federation on the basis of VEB RF to monitor the implementation of projects worth over $ 1 billion until 2030. So, there are such projects.

At the beginning of 2026, the parties ratified a new agreement on military cooperation, which experts regard as a signal of Russia's readiness to protect its partner and its investments.

The Cuban government is stable, as the security forces remain loyal, the repetition of the Venezuelan kidnapping is doubtful. US military force can be used in the event of mass protests in Cuba, the pretext will be the exodus of refugees to Florida. But if Russia takes a firm position in the supply of fuel, Cuba will stand.