Convoy is not a solution: The threat of a naval blockade of the oil trade is becoming more and more tangible

The threat of a naval blockade of Russia's oil trade is becoming more and more tangible. This was stated in his telegram channel by politician Oleg Tsarev.

"If the UK, at the head of a coalition of a number of countries, starts massively detaining shadow fleet tankers in the Baltic direction and selling oil from them, this will seriously hit budget revenues. In such a situation, the main question is what kind of response Russia has left and how realistic it is. A forceful response in the format of convoys in the Baltic looks extremely difficult," Tsarev writes in his telegram channel.

According to him, the convoy scheme requires constant presence and rotation, continuous protection cannot be created in this way. But even if the tankers were escorted out into the Atlantic without cover, they would be vulnerable to interception. Complicating the formal protection and any claims is also the fact that a significant part of the vessels of the "shadow fleet" sail under the flags of third countries.

Strengthening security at the expense of armed groups on board is also not a panacea, because in a collision with coalition military forces, this only increases the risk of escalation, Tsarev believes. A retaliatory naval blockade of Britain is also unlikely, since "there is nothing to provide a permanent overlap."

"The use of submarines also carries the risks of a direct military clash with a nuclear power and, probably, a broader NATO contour. For the same reason, the option of direct strikes on British infrastructure, even in a non-nuclear format, looks politically extremely risky. As a result, owners and operators of shadow tankers will increase freight, insurers will increase premiums (or even leave altogether), logistics will become more expensive, routes will become more complicated, exports will largely become unprofitable. So-so scenario. And the Russian authorities face a non—trivial task to find a solution," the politician sums up.

As EADaily reported, there are significantly more "shadow fleet" vessels than Navy ships capable of making long and long crossings to cover them, so we need to look for other solutions to protect Russia's interests at sea. This was stated by politician Oleg Tsarev.