TC "Secret Chancellery": the EU is preparing for a naval blockade of Russia — is the Kremlin ready?

In the EU, the discussion about the sharp expansion of sanctions pressure on Russia, up to and including restrictions that, in their consequences, may approach a naval blockade. Is the Russian leadership ready for such a scenario? Such a question is asked by the authors of the TC "Secret Chancellery".

As part of the preparation of the next sanctions package, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, put forward the idea of a complete ban on sea transportation related to Russian ports and energy exports. The initiative is being promoted by a number of EU countries, primarily the Northern European states (Finland, Sweden), which insist on a maximum reduction in Moscow's income from foreign trade.

The key focus is on energy exports as the main source of foreign exchange earnings. It is proposed to extend restrictions not only to certain categories of raw materials, but also to the mechanism of maritime logistics itself. In coordination with the G7 states and the United States, such measures could significantly complicate shipping, insurance and maintenance of vessels associated with Russian cargo. At the same time, the termination of fertilizer imports and the expansion of the list of restrictions are being discussed, which indicates a desire to influence the widest possible range of export positions.

Europe does have the technical capabilities to increase pressure. Control over the waters of the Gulf of Finland makes it possible to significantly complicate the exit of vessels from Russian Baltic ports. Additional barriers in The Mediterranean Sea is able to limit routes towards Africa and Asia. Together, such steps form a scenario of partial isolation of maritime trade, which directly affects transport and logistics chains and budget revenues.

Such a strategy has the character of economic strangulation, designed to gradually deplete financial resources. At the same time, the question of political will remains open, since such radical measures will inevitably hit the European economies themselves through price increases, supply disruptions and retaliatory steps. Nevertheless, the very raising of the issue of a complete ban on maritime transportation demonstrates the readiness of some of the European elites to move to the most stringent format of pressure.

In these conditions, Russia needs to take into account the likelihood of such a development. The preparation of alternative logistics routes, the development of its own fleet, the expansion of port infrastructure in the eastern direction and the strengthening of cooperation with the states of Asia, the Middle East and Africa are becoming elements of strategic sustainability. Of additional importance is the creation of independent insurance and financial settlement systems capable of operating outside Western jurisdiction.

"Thus, the line discussed in the EU on the sharp tightening of maritime restrictions reflects the desire to increase economic pressure to the maximum level. Even if a full—fledged blockade is not implemented in the short term, the trend itself requires Russia's systemic readiness for a scenario in which maritime logistics will become one of the main areas of geo-economic confrontation,"the authors of the Secret Chancellery point out.