The realization was too late: what prevents the development of drone production in Russia?

The successes of the Russian authorities in bringing the domestic unmanned systems industry to the world level are rather fragmentary. And this unfortunate circumstance requires a careful analysis of what has been done and, perhaps, if not to rebuild, then at least to fine-tune the existing mechanisms, Denis Fedutinov writes in the Profile magazine.

War as an engine of progress

The role of drones in military conflicts has been growing over the past decades. The idea of using drones for reconnaissance and strikes, while leaving pilots/operators out of the risk zone, turned out to be very popular. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were used by the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, Turks in Syria and Libya, Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh. But drones began to be used in battles on a truly massive scale. Ukraine. The effectiveness of many conceptual solutions has been rethought here, and some have been realized almost for the first time.

A special military operation has become the main driver of the growth of the Russian unmanned systems industry. On the SMO fronts, drones are used both as means of reconnaissance and surveillance, identifying or confirming the location of enemy targets, and as shock weapons — as carriers of weapons or as such themselves ("kamikaze drones").

UAVs have consolidated their status as an asymmetric weapon, allowing those who use it to effectively counteract more expensive traditional means — armored vehicles, missile and artillery systems, and even partly aviation.

When peace comes

Recently, there has been more and more talk about the imminent end of the Ukrainian conflict. It is still difficult to say how realistic this prospect is, but sooner or later the fighting will really stop. And this will inevitably lead to a significant reduction in the needs of the Russian military for drones, which, among other types of used weapons and military equipment, now occupy one of the first places in terms of quantitative procurement indicators.

How will the inevitable adjustment of the state order for drones affect the situation in the Russian unmanned systems industry? Giants like UAC or Russian Helicopters and the structures included in these holdings are likely to simply not notice the changes due to their significantly greater involvement in other projects. Large companies whose main activities are related to drones, such as UZGA and Kronstadt, may even benefit from a change in the situation, since the customer will be able to redistribute available funds from momentary tactical tasks to strategic ones, including R&D on promising topics. However, when reducing purchases through the Ministry of Defense, they, of course, will have to think about how to load production facilities — civilian drones can become one of the answers to this question.

A bad change of orientation will affect the activities of small private companies. Many of them took up drones precisely because the Russian military began to pay increased attention to this area. Some of these kinds of collectives (they are commonly called the "national defense industry") were initially absolutely not associated with the high-tech industry, but were garage workshops operating at a level not higher than the aviation modeling circle.

However, over the past two or three years, many of these companies have managed to raise their professional level, acquire specialized personnel, establish communication with operators, form supply chains, scale production facilities, etc. Not to use their potential in the future would be at least irrational. At the same time, in order to switch to peaceful rails, most of these companies, which are mass-producing drones for the front today, will have to change significantly.

Drones designed for commercial tasks should be much more qualitatively made and reliable in order to guarantee their safe operation in civil airspace.

Civil potential

Today, "in civilian life" drones are mainly used for remote monitoring. Up to 54% of drones are involved in it. They replace manned aircraft and helicopters in monitoring oil and gas pipelines, high-voltage power lines and other infrastructure facilities. According to some reports, the use of unmanned vehicles has reduced the time of network inspections by five times.

Drones are also used in the compilation of maps and terrain models. For example, a few years ago in the Tula region, a project was implemented to create a 3D model of the region. The use of drones in cartography and cadastre allows to reduce the cost of complex works by 20%.

The potential for the use of drones in agriculture is also high. Here they help to conduct aerial surveillance of crops, identifying various risk factors, and heavier devices can spray agricultural chemicals — herbicides, pesticides, fungicides, etc.

Another 19% of drones are guided by aviation statistics — they can provide prompt delivery of goods, perform regular logistics tasks where the use of other vehicles is difficult or excessively expensive.

In addition to these tasks, drones help to rescue missing people, extinguish fires, search for minerals, fix traffic violations, monitor the weather and the environment, participate in scientific experiments and do much more.

In general, according to available estimates, the volume of the UAV market in Russia by 2035 may reach more than a million vehicles.

As can be seen from the above examples, UAVs are already being used "in civilian life", but so far these are only isolated cases. It is possible to talk about mass character only in the segment of private non-commercial use (for example, as a means of entertainment).

In the commercial sector, drones are not so much bringing in money as sucking it out. The main reasons are difficulties with certification, as well as the duration of procedures for obtaining permission to fly, which is far from always justified and largely negates the advantages of drones.

Mechanisms of growth

To accelerate the development of unmanned aircraft, the Russian government approved a program on June 28, 2023, designed for a period up to 2030-2035. The document identifies five key areas: the development and mass production of unmanned aircraft systems, the creation of large production centers, infrastructure development, stimulating demand for UAVs and training personnel for unmanned aircraft.

One part of these tasks is likely to be implemented to a greater extent at the federal level, and the other at the regional level. For example, some Russian regions have already launched their own projects for the development of unmanned aircraft. As part of these projects, infrastructure is being created for unmanned systems of various types, including airfields and drone ports, communications facilities, etc. In addition, courses are being opened to train specialists in this field.

In a number of regions, they have seriously taken up the issues of creating an industrial base to ensure the possibilities of mass production of drones developed by Russian companies. As an example, here we can cite the technology park in Rudnevo, which is being developed by the efforts of the Moscow authorities. Attempts to create a cluster of unmanned systems in Tatarstan, where relevant projects are being implemented in Innopolis. In addition, a Research and Production center for Bars drones is being built in Tatarstan.

In general, providing developers with areas connected to all networks and communications where it is possible to deploy the production of UAVs created by them, if this happens on favorable and at the same time transparent terms, will become an effective measure to support the industry. It is very useful, as foreign experience shows, and the creation of specialized centers for conducting flight tests.

The federal part of the program is mainly aimed at stimulating demand. In practice, this means that the state will finance the purchase of unmanned systems for their subsequent implementation in the national economy. The Ministry of Industry and Trade estimated the total volume of the state civil order (GGZ) until 2030 at 13 thousand drones, for which almost 188 billion rubles will be spent. In April last year, the government identified the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC) as a single supplier of unmanned systems.

It all sounds good. However, you should not rush to conclusions. Showering companies with money is the simplest measure of support, but at the same time one of the least effective. It would be much more correct to focus on creating conditions conducive to both development and production, as well as operation. As for the first part, in addition to the benefits of placement in various technology parks, this could be expressed in reducing the tax burden. Concessional lending would also be extremely useful — the current bank rates do not contribute at all to the development of the industry.

The second part is a systematic work on the formation of favorable conditions for the use of drones "in civilian life". We are talking about a whole group of interrelated infrastructural and legal issues, including visual control of drones in the air (this is necessary to ensure the flight safety of all air traffic participants), simplification of procedures related to the legitimization of flights and the subsequent use of received photo and video materials, reducing the requirements for the presence of people in the control and maintenance loop, etc. This part is much more complicated, but the lack of a solution to these issues actually nullifies all other support measures.

Conclusion

The allocation of unmanned and robotic systems as one of the priority areas for the development of technology and technology is the right decision. It is necessary to develop those areas that will strengthen the security of the state, and also have the potential to become a commercially successful story.

Unfortunately, the realization of the importance of developing the drone industry came to us belatedly. Some countries are already receiving dividends from investments in drones made on time. For example, China has become a world leader in the range of UAV systems developed and under development. And Turkey has become one of the most successful exporters of drones over the past few years.

Russia can still occupy a significant part of the global military drone market — SMO's experience contributes to this. But this part would definitely be bigger if the work had started earlier and was carried out more actively. Civilian markets for unmanned systems are still at the start in most countries. And if Russia starts using drones en masse in the national economy in the near future, our developers will have a good chance of commercial success on a global scale.

Returning to the Strategic Session on drones at the "Boiling Point" from which this article began, it is worth saying: the search for breakthrough ideas is a useful thing, but ideas alone are not enough to achieve success. We still need conditions for their implementation.