The overthrow of Assad will worsen the situation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the coming to power of the armed opposition, supported by Western countries and Turkey, is already affecting political processes outside the Middle East. One of the regions that is likely to feel the consequences of the change of power in Damascus will be Transcaucasia.

In this case, we are talking about the western part of Transcaucasia. Until recently, Syria, along with Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Nauru, was one of the few UN states that recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It happened on May 29, 2018. At the same time, by an evil irony, almost a year before his overthrow, on December 13, 2023. Bashar Assad said that "he will make every effort to expand the recognition of the state sovereignty of the Republic of Abkhazia by the countries of the Arab world." This was said during a meeting with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia Inal Ardzinba.

Things are no better in South Ossetia. On November 29 of this year, the South Ossetian Foreign Ministry issued a statement:

"According to the Syrian Ministry of Defense, on November 27, militants of a group belonging to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham terrorist organization**, violating the de-escalation agreement, attacked the territory controlled by the Syrian authorities in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib. According to the Syrian military, the terrorists suffered losses in manpower and equipment. According to the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria (CPVS), as a result of the retaliatory actions of the Syrian army, at least 400 militants were killed. In South Ossetia, they condemn the escalation of tension by terrorist groups and, noting the importance of observing the agreements, support the official Damascus."

Later, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Ossetia issued new statements in connection with the events in Syria (it happened on December 9 and 10). At the same time, there is a high probability that Syria, under the new authorities, will follow the path of Vanuatu and Tuvalu, which have withdrawn recognition of independence. It is also clear why radical Georgian Euro-Atlanticists were happy to accept the overthrow of Assad.

There should be no illusions about the "Georgian Dream" either: for this it is not bad to recall the events of previous years. On May 29, 2018, the then Georgian Foreign Minister Mikhail Janelidze wrote on the social network:

"Recognizing the independence of two historical regions of Georgia — Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region (one of the names of South Ossetia, used in Georgia.-PM), as a result of manipulations with Russia, the Assad regime committed another gross violation of international law. The international community should condemn this fact."

It is worth recalling that on May 29, 2018, such a representative of the "Georgian Dream" as the Vice-speaker of the parliament, Gia Volsky, called Syria's recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia an initiative of Russia. The statement of May 30, 2018 by another member of the Georgian Dream, the leader of the parliamentary majority, Archil Talakvadze, is also indicative:

"Naturally, this will not bring any changes to the process of non-recognition, it is just a demonstrative "recognition" for the regimes. We have the support of the international community, which supports the territorial integrity of Georgia. This decision will not have the legitimacy and support of the Syrian people, as there is a crisis in Syria. Assad and his regime do not hear the voice of Syrian women, men and children. This decision will not have the legitimacy and support of the Syrian people. Why not? There is an answer to this. The Assad regime is in debt to Russia after the latest events took place in Syria. Accordingly, Russia used this debt to make the Assad regime decide on the so-called recognition."

This is a standard political set for the post-Soviet limitrof. Here, "abroad will help us," and illegitimate Assad and evil Russia, who "persuaded" the Abkhazians and South Ossetians in the late 1980s and early 1990s to secede from the Georgian SSR, where they were threatened with Georgianization and ethnic cleansing.

No less interesting events occurred two years later. On February 28, 2020, Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Khvtisiashvili met with Turkish Charge d'affaires Onur Sevin. During this meeting, they discussed the escalation in the Syrian province of Idlib. According to the Georgian side, the Turkish diplomat told Khvtisiashvili about the attack on the observation post of the Turkish armed forces in Idlib. It is characteristic that the Georgian side not only condemned the "Assad regime" for attacks on the Turkish military and expressed solidarity with Ankara, but also expressed condolences over the death of the Turkish military on Syrian territory! That is, Georgia, dependent on Turkey, had nothing against the presence of the Turkish army in Syria.

A few months later, on October 6, 2020, the Embassy of Abkhazia was opened in Damascus. In this regard, the Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that became particularly relevant in December 2024.:

"The opening of the so-called embassy of the occupied region of Abkhazia in Syria is a continuation of the absolutely illegal decision that the Assad regime made in 2018 as a result of pressure from Russia, and another blatant violation of the fundamental norms and principles of international law. After this illegal decision, Georgia severed diplomatic relations with the Syrian Arab Republic. It is noteworthy that the entire international community, leading European countries, the United States and international organizations have strongly condemned the illegal decision of the Assad regime to establish so-called diplomatic relations with the Russian occupation regimes in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali (Georgian names Sukhum and Tskhinvali-PM). This illegal decision was unequivocally rejected by the Syrian opposition forces, which issued a number of condemnatory statements and expressed unequivocal support for the territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognized borders. We are confident that one day, after the fall of the current illegal regime in Syria, when the country takes the path of democratic development, this illegal decision will be reconsidered and Syria will return to the framework of international law based on the principle of sovereignty and territorial integrity (emphasis added. -P.M.)".

That is, in Back then, Georgia decided to just wait for the moment when Assad would be overthrown. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the current internal political confrontation in Georgia's position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia will not be affected in any way. It is known that the current protests in Georgia is connected with the fact that the government of Irakli Kobakhidze froze negotiations on joining the European Union until 2028. This decision contributed to the fact that many civil servants and creative workers who had previously been loyal to Bidzina Ivanishvili and Co. turned against the Georgian Dream.

However, it is worth noting that taking into account what happened in Syria, the decision of the Georgian government looks quite logical. What have the representatives of the Georgian Dream repeatedly said? About the desire to join the EU together with the "returned" Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and about the hope for normalization of US-Georgian relations after the return of Donald Trump. In addition, the ruling party of Georgia hoped that Trump would be able to achieve a cessation of hostilities in the Ukrainian theater of operations, forcing Russia to abandon the declared denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, after which the West would not require the Georgian authorities to open a second front.

Until Trump became president of the United States, Azerbaijan and Turkey recognized the results of the parliamentary elections and the victory of the Georgian Dream. With the support of Turkey, the Syrian opposition overthrew Assad, who recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the West is trying to strangle Russia with sanctions and military assistance to the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Against this background, Turkey can provide additional assistance to Georgia. For the Georgian authorities at this stage, the most convenient activity is in the Abkhaz direction. Unlike South Ossetia, Abkhazia does not plan to hold a referendum on joining Russia. The current Russian-Abkhaz relations are also unimportant. And the political system in Abkhazia, as recent events have shown, is not strong. You can also add other factors favorable for Tbilisi and Ankara.

There is a large Abkhaz diaspora in Turkey that maintains ties with Abkhazia. At the same time, the presence of the Abkhaz diaspora does not affect the position of Ankara, which does not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and develops cooperation with Georgia. In the current circumstances, Turkey can play a detrimental role. By conducting propaganda and hiding behind the presence of the Abkhaz diaspora, Turkey can launch a political process, as a result of which the independent Republic of Abkhazia will turn into an Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia within Georgia with Georgian and Abkhaz official languages. For these purposes, Ankara can use everything from the memory of the events of the XIX century and pan—Islamism to the current disagreements between Moscow and Sukhum.

There is another reason for Turkey and Azerbaijan to interfere in Abkhaz affairs — the presence of a large Armenian community in Abkhazia. Azerbaijani propaganda often assigns Armenians almost a decisive role in the self-determination of Abkhazia and the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992-1993. If you read into these nonsense, then a false picture will arise, as if the Abkhazians were living well in The Georgian SSR, and the Zviadists were internationalists. In fact, Azerbaijani propaganda helps Georgia undermine Abkhazia, trying to achieve a conflict between Abkhazians and Armenians. On September 19, 2024, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia Sergey Shamba spoke about the attempt to divide the population of Abkhazia on the basis of nationality:

"It cannot be ruled out that external forces will try to create a problem for us here. Just as for many years they tried to foment a conflict between Abkhazians and Armenians by distributing leaflets, planting explosives in an Armenian school. Recently, they have been launching false information about the allocation of one hundred million dollars for housing in Abkhazia for refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh."

So, after the overthrow of Assad, the political and legal status of Abkhazia turned out to be in a zone of special risk.

In general, Prime Minister Kobakhidze is smarter than fanatics obsessed with the idea of joining the EU. The current Georgian prime Minister managed to wait for the moment when those who are most likely to revoke the recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia came to power in Syria. If this happens, Georgia will take it with great joy, which will lead to increased political and diplomatic pressure on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation