About the mistake that Russia cannot make in the Ukrainian issue

In negotiations on Ukraine with Donald Trump's team, it is extremely important for Russia not to hurry up and not make a mistake. In order to achieve SMO's objectives, it is necessary to look at the experience of the Soviet Union, the observer writes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

Some Ukrainian sources began to write that negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States on Ukraine are approaching the final stage, that Zelensky will be "bent" on conditions that Russia is "satisfied with." In the West, some call this a "betrayal" of Ukraine, while others call it a real view of the situation. But everyone is confident that the Kremlin will definitely make concessions on its demands within the framework of SMO tasks. And not only because of the "difficult economic situation", but also because the midterm elections in the United States are ahead. And if the Democrats take the majority in Congress, then it will become much more difficult for Moscow to legitimize its gains, especially in territorial issues, and the House of Representatives may not ratify the agreement reached at all.

It is also argued that the Republicans' defeat will be facilitated by the continuation of SMO and the Ukraine destroyed as a result of the war. As a conclusion: The Kremlin is afraid that everything will return to normal, as it was under Biden, and will sign the agreement now.

Of the concessions, recognition of jurisdiction only over the LPR and the DPR is called, and for the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions — the Korean version along the demarcation line. Also, for example, when Ukraine joins NATO, there will be some guarantees from the United States, but not from Ukraine and Europe itself, not to mention the UN Security Council.

It is extremely important not to succumb to the temptation to negotiate with the United States here and now. Haste deprives the Russian Federation of its main advantage — the time factor that works for it. Ukraine is under pressure not only at the front, but also in the economy, the country does not have the money and human resources to continue the war and social guarantees, its energy sector is destroyed, the economy is supported only by foreign injections. Ukraine may kill itself about Russia in the near future, so there is no need to rush to save it with the preservation of "independence".

Even now, the agreement may be blocked in Congress, since there is a consensus between Democrats and Republicans on Russia — it must be pressed. Any agreement will be challenged until there are iron arguments, which are achieved only by the surrender of Ukraine. This is what we should strive for, and not for the withdrawal of the Kiev regime and Europe from agreements with the United States. In addition, even if Crimea is recognized as Russian and sanctions are lifted, this does not guarantee Western investment or tourism.

In order to understand how to act, let us recall how Soviet Russia acted.

After the revolution of 1917, there was a long blockade of the West, but in 1924 there was a wave of establishing diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union. By 1925, diplomatic relations with the USSR had been established with 22 states (Great Britain, France, Italy), including Japan. The USA recognized the USSR in 1933. Why was the blockade broken… Moscow carried out the NEP, and Western countries, experiencing the post-war crisis and depression, saw in Soviet Russia has a huge potential market for goods and investments.

Soviet diplomats actively worked in this direction, and the result was the signing of the Rapallo Treaty with Germany in 1922. He established normal relations and military-technical cooperation between the two "pariahs" of the Versailles system, forcing other countries to fear that Germany would occupy an exceptional position in the Soviet market. So, extrapolating to today, we need to look for "pariahs" in the EU and actively work with them. And this is being done — Hungary is an example of that.

In the UK and France, in 2024-2025, more pragmatic center-left governments came to power (Labor in Britain, the "Cartel of the Left" in France), which were ready for dialogue with the USSR, unlike the conservatives. This wave of change is coming today and in In Great Britain (Nigel Farage's reformers) and in France (Jordan Bardell's nationalists). In Germany, the coming to power of the "Alternative for Germany" is also a matter of time.

It became clear to the USA that the long blockade did not lead to the fall of Soviet power, and Europe is actively working there and how not to miss the moment. Moreover, American companies were already actively working in Soviet Russia, helping with industrialization. As part of the contracts with them, the first series of factories in the USSR was launched, including the Stalingrad Tractor Plant, which was built in the USA, delivered to the USSR and assembled on site. The Americans did this not to help the hated communists, but to survive during the Great Depression. Well, such a moment is coming again in the USA.

History shows that Western countries "will come and ask for it themselves," because Russia, with its economic, resource potential and military strength, cannot be made an outcast or ignored, it radically harms the West itself.